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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeyB who wrote (46576)	1/18/1999 7:07:00 PM
From: Cirruslvr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573018

Read this guy's prediction Got this from the yahoo thread - "Suggest you allow this large chart be our starting point and as time passes, we can update it and see what developes. We now know these starting points about Q1: A. AMD has declared it will make 5.5MM chips with a higher ASP in Q1. We will stick with the 5.5MM conservatively even though AMD has beat the unit volume each prior Q. We need to arrive at a reasonable ASP below. B. We know that AMD is really pushing MOBILE 3D 300/333 chips this Q and at relatively high ASPs. C. We know that AMD is selling 3D K6-2 (350/400)s in large volumes, but at very very cheap ASPs. D. We know that AMD is selling 3D K6-2 (450)s in low quanties in Q1, but this one goes against 3D PIII (400)s at a modestly high ASP; E. We know that the improved core 3D K6-3 (400 and 450) will go against INTC's big new gun in late Feb - their improved core 3D PIII (400 and 450) INTC is pricing at about $500 and $700 respectively and finally; F. We know that AMD is going full guns with K6-2 (350, 400, and the big push on Mobile 300 and 333... all 3D), and that AMD has been producing since last Q, and will continue to produce K6-3's now through launch in late Feb. Even so, the K6-3 400/450 will probably be in limited supply all Q1. With the below strategies, AMD will make 5.5MM chips in Q1: - ............ 1.8MM K6-2 3D 350 ASP=$75 with sales = $135MM ..This product goes against Cel 350 no-3D @$70 - ............. 1.1MM K6-2 3D 400 ASP=$85 with sales = $93.5MM ..This one goes against Cel no 3D 400 at around $80 - ........1.5MM MOBILE 3D K6-2 300 ASP=$120 with sales = $180MM ..This goes against Cel No-3D 300 at around $150 - ........ 0.5MM MOBILE 3D K6-2 333 ASP=$150 with sales = $75MM ..This goes against Cel No-3D 366 around $250. - .............. 0.3MM K6-2 3D 450 ASP=$120 with sales = $36MM ..This goes against 3D PIII 400 @$300 - .............. 0.15MM K6-3 3D 400 ASP=$200 with sales = $30MM ..This one goes against 3D PIII 400 @$300 too. - .............. 0.15MM K6-3 3D 450 ASP=$300 with sales = $45MM ..This goes against 3D PIII 450 @$500. Total products=7 Total Q1 units = 5.5MM. TOTAL CPU SALES $595MM ASP for Q1 = 595/5.5 = $108 (which exceeds Needham's $95 ASP) TOT. AMD Q1 sales= $595MM cpus + non $300MM non-cpus = $895MM (a flat unit sales, but 13.5% dollar growth. With a $19 higher ASP, this is obviously too optimistic for round one because $19 x 5.5MM = $104.5MM added profit over Q4 ($22MM), which would make Q1 $126MM/150MM shares = +84c/share Q1 Need fixin'" I think his notebook numbers are way too high. Also, his 350 ASP is too high, but his 400 ASP is too low. He also forgot the 380. Any good estimates?