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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (3337)1/18/1999 8:18:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9818
 
Kid,

That was a good read.. (well I read the first half and skimmed the rest, bookmarking it for later perusal.. :0) It brought up some perspectives that I hadn't thought of before.

And it details some of the differences between the worker/consumer class of the '20's and the one we currently have. We also have a wholesale participation in the stock market through 401Ks and IRA (good or bad).

I think we possess a much broader consumer based economy, but the same credit liabilities exist as then and any wholesale loss of jobs or credit crunch could send many consumers into default or bankrutpcy.

I'll try and finish it later.

Btw, IMO, economics is as much a Voodoo science as Political Science is. Only when someone is able to combine all of the social sciences together, especially Social Psychology do we begin to get close to accurately predicting anything. But there aren't too many people that possess a grasp of all of the social sciences, let alone put all of the influences together in a coherent and predictable manner... certainly not myself.

Those things we haven't been able to take into account are called externalities. Life is full of them.... <vbg> (My old professors would cringe if they could hear how I'm "dis'in" their professions... :0)

Regards,

Ron



To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (3337)1/19/1999 11:39:00 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh  Respond to of 9818
 
Kid, you asked:

Is there an economist that can accurately predict anything consistently?

There are only two economists who can make accurate predictions. Unfortunately they disagree with each other.
;-)

Al