Hunan Begins to Boil
Summary:
* China's rising unemployment, officially forecast by Beijing to
top 16 million this year, produced thousands of protests across
China in 1998. One region in particular that appears to be
emerging as an epicenter for unrest is Hunan province, hit not
only by layoffs but also by flooding and official corruption.
Hunan has seen a series of demonstrations in recent weeks,
including a violent one on January 8 that reportedly involved
some 5,000 farmers. Hunan is also home to political and labor
activists, several of whom have been targeted in Beijing's recent
crackdown on dissent. On January 17, a bomb exploded on a bus in
the Hunan capital, Changsha, injuring 37. With social unrest now
turning to violence, a cadre of activists, and only harder times
in sight, Hunan could soon pose a serious challenge to stability
in China as a whole. We expect Beijing knows this and will
respond accordingly.
Analysis:
According to reports from China's Xinhua news agency and multiple
sources outside China, a bomb exploded on a bus on the evening of
January 17 in Changsha, capital of the central Chinese province
of Hunan. The blast reportedly injured at least 37 of the 60
people on board, four of them seriously, although Chinese
officials deny a report in the Hong Kong newspaper Ming Pao that
11 people were killed in the blast. There is no report of
whether any passersby were injured by the explosion, which
occurred at 7:40pm on Wuyi Avenue, a busy shopping street.
According to an eyewitness cited by Xinhua, a man of about 30 put
a lit cigarette in a large sack he had brought on the bus
immediately before exiting the bus. Moments later the sack
exploded. Said the witness, "The young man looked like a farmer
who was in the city looking for temporary work. He was dressed
in tatty clothing and was generally scruffy." Local police
investigating the bombing reportedly did not confirm the
witness's account, but according to the BBC, investigators did
find traces of sulfur and nitrogen on the bus and confirm that
the explosion was caused by a bomb. The Hong Kong based
Information Centre of Human Rights and Democratic Movement in
China calls Changsha "a disaster area for unemployment," and has
reported sabotage attempts in the area last July and September.
On January 8, some 5,000 farmers protesting government corruption
and excessive taxes clashed with police in Daolin township, about
25 miles from Changsha. One farmer was reportedly killed when
hit by a tear gas canister, and some 100 more were injured in the
more than five hour clash. According to a local Chinese radio
station employee interviewed by the New York Times, the
demonstrations were sparked when local police attempted on
January 8 to disband and arrest the officers of the Society for
Reducing Taxes and Saving the Nation, a group founded last year
by local farmers. The radio station employee claimed that 10,000
farmers were present at the peak of the demonstration, while the
Information Centre of Human Rights and Democratic Movement in
China put the number at 3,000 and Chinese officials admit that
4,000 to 5,000 were involved. A second demonstration reportedly
followed on January 9 but was quickly put down by 500 troops,
while three other smaller protests related to the January 8
incident have reportedly occurred since then.
On January 18, several hundred laid off workers, known as
"xiagang," from the state-owned Changde textiles factory, roughly
100 miles northwest of Changsha, blocked a highway bridge for
over an hour to protest not receiving wages for over three
months. According to the Information Centre of Human Rights and
Democratic Movement in China, the demonstration caused a two mile
long traffic jam. The Changde factory reportedly recently laid
off some 3,000 of its 10,000 workers. Hundreds of laid off
workers reportedly held similar demonstrations in Changsha on
three occasions in November.
China has seen widespread social unrest and demonstrations in the
past year, as the Asian economic collapse and China's efforts to
force inefficiencies out of its economy have left millions
unemployed. China's xaigang pose an increasing threat to China's
stability as their demonstrations are growing larger, more
frequent, and more violent. Demonstrations have been widespread
and frequent, and bombings have occurred elsewhere in China as
well. An explosion at a bus stop last week in Zhuhai, Guangdong
province, injured four. Two people died and six were injured in
an explosion late Sunday afternoon in an apartment on a busy
street in Guangzhou. Traces of explosives were reportedly found
at the scene.
While social unrest is present throughout China, Hunan is
particularly volatile. The province is faced with extensive
corruption and high unemployment, and has a tradition of anti-
government activism. Chinese media has been filled with reports
of Hunan officials caught up in Beijing's anti-corruption
campaign, charged with and convicted of everything from massive
embezzlement to vote fraud. Hunan has not only had to deal with
layoffs from state-run factories, but is also coping with more
than 300,000 refugees from flood ravaged areas.
Hunan is also home to a number of Chinese opposition activists,
many of them veterans of the 1989 pro-democracy movement. The
Changsha Workers Autonomous Federation was created in 1989, and
was reportedly prominent in the pro-democracy struggle. Two
committees of the China Democracy Party, recently the target of a
government crackdown, were established last year in Changsha.
Labor activist Zhang Shanguang, was sentenced last month in
Changsha to 10 years in prison for "endangering state security."
Zhang had served seven years in prison for ‘spreading
counterrevolutionary propaganda" during the 1989 demonstrations.
After his release, Zhang worked in, and was laid off from, a
state-run factory. He proceeded to found the Association to
Protect the Rights and Interests of Laid-Off Workers. He was
arrested after giving an interview to Radio Free Asia regarding
rural unrest in Hunan. Xu Wanping, another Changsha activist, in
December was reportedly the first to be sentenced to prison for
his role in attempting to establish the China Democracy Party.
Xu was also active in the 1989 pro-democracy movement, for which
he spent eight years in prison.
According to the official China Daily Business Weekly, China's
unemployment situation is only going to get worse in 1999. On
January 17, the journal cited Ministry of Labor and Social
Security expert Mo Rong as forecasting some 30 million job
seekers in 1999, with only 14 million new positions created in
China's slowing economy. "This leaves almost 16 million people
who will be unable to find a position through the labor market,"
said Mo.
Beijing is approaching a major crisis, with few options to escape
or weather it. Like most of the rest of Asia, China is faced
with the need to dramatically restructure its economy, knowing
that such a move will foster massive social upheaval. Elsewhere
in Asia, Japan has given social stability top priority, and so
has been unable to pull out of its economic quagmire. Malaysia
has sought to detach itself in part from the global economy, in
order to avoid both social unrest and difficult economic
decisions. China has chosen a third path, taking the necessary
steps to reform its economy while dealing with a firm hand, or
fist, with the ensuing social disruption. Opposition sources
claim that Beijing has authorized security forces to fire on
demonstrators without prior approval under certain conditions.
But as Beijing pushes ahead with layoffs at state-run firms, the
increasing number of unemployed pose an increasing threat to
China's stability. This problem could be amplified if Chinese
growth dips below five percent, a point toward which some
analysts argue the Chinese economy is already creeping. China
will either have to curtail economic restructuring, potentially
sinking into the same stagnation seen in Japan, or it will have
to take more draconian steps to control unrest. That Hunan
province should lead the pack in social dislocation and
disaffection is a historical irony of massive proportions: After
all it was in Hunan that Mao Zedong first launched a peasant-
worker revolt, and the same province may end up being ground zero
for the next phase of repressive Chinese policies.
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