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Technology Stocks : Audio and Radio on the Internet- NAVR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Byron Xiao who wrote (4545)	1/18/1999 8:43:00 PM
From: Tom Hua	Respond to of 27722

Byron, your flaw is in your underestimation of the potential market cap for NetRadio. A lot of people were way off (factor of 2 to 4) in their estimates of MKWT's IPO price. Likewise, in their wildest imagination, no one would have thought UBID could trade at $185 just days post IPO, but it did. And who would have guessed an unknown outfit called Theglobe.com opened at 10 times its offering price. Sure, these are hot IPOs. I do think NetRadio is at least as hot as the above. There're many public web auction companies, music retailers, etc.., but NetRadio is the first of its kind. BCST has a market cap of $2.4 B, who's to say that NetRadio won't be comparable. Even half BCST's value would send NAVR shares into the high 40s. I don't know if you're short NAVR, but if you're, it's my opinion that you're playing with fire. Take it from a guy who has made more money on the short side than long (most recent one was DBCC). There'll be a time when NAVR will be a good short, but that time's not here yet. Regards, Tom

To: Byron Xiao who wrote (4545)	1/18/1999 8:51:00 PM
From: Lane Hall-Witt	Respond to of 27722

Byron, I think you're right to point to other stocks for comparison, other than BCST. Although I noted the BCST figures, I tend to believe that NetRadio would not perform as well as the BCST IPO, even under the best of circumstances. BCST has the advantage of being the first to go public and is already carrying the "best of class" label. The explosion of IPOs we'll see between now and NetRadio significantly changes the supply-and-demand situation, too. NAVR is moving too slowly to launch a rocket. Nonetheless, I do believe there's more upside from here. My gut-level figure for the NetRadio IPO is a market cap of $450-500 million, which indicates another 50 percent upside on a valuation basis. NAVR likely has hype and short multipliers working in its favor, also, so it could well go higher than my valuation models suggest it should (like DBCC). I guess it's greed and fear that'll tell the story in the end, anyway.

To: Byron Xiao who wrote (4545)	1/18/1999 9:09:00 PM
From: Richard B. Haenisch	Respond to of 27722

Hey Byron, Your valuation of NAVR is absolutely appreciated - honestly, however, you fail to take into consideration a) the imminent "short squeeze" once the hype has reached it's crescendo, b) MM price manipulation and c) the small float left. Just like MALL and DBCC, the price NAVR will reach will, no doubt, "over shoot" the actual intrinsic value of NAVR, but to "cry wolf" at this point? Let it go "up" into the 30's before you start thinking about shorting this "puppy"! Good luck everyone! Rico

To: Byron Xiao who wrote (4545)	1/18/1999 9:25:00 PM
From: zurdo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27722

<<It might only get to 35>> I have looked at your posts, and it seems to me that they are always negative, and appear to be designed to introduce uncertainty and doubt to those who are optimistic about NAVR's potential to rise significantly in value as a result of the IPO...What's your game?? Did you short at too low a level??

To: Byron Xiao who wrote (4545)	1/18/1999 11:39:00 PM
From: bodie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27722

If you really want it to go up, then quit being so negative. Sorry, but you sound like a wolf in sheep's clothing. If you committed your money, then live with it. If you think you made a mistake then sell and get out. bodie

To: Byron Xiao who wrote (4545)	1/19/1999 9:07:00 AM
From: Colin Thorpe	Respond to of 27722

Byron Re yr Monday night post. I set the $38 initially after the buy figuring I would adjust it up or down based on events unfolding. I don't currently do online trading so have to sometimes set prices in the brokers system should the market take off, either direction. New at all of this and plan to set up an online account, just haven't figured with who yet. I agree with your caution on the pricing. Would rather settle for less than try for too big a score and get nothing(or worse). Doesn't all this depend on MKWT progress in the market and where DBCC settles? If DBCC moves down into the lower teens seems like it would put a cap emotionally on the initial mania for NAVR?