Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: valueminded who wrote (43912)	1/19/1999 10:13:00 PM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 132070

CP: In the past, one could make excellent returns on the tech juniors, (and I mean real juniors)...both directions. That is my normal and happiest hangout. Unfortunately the juniors are corpses (many "no bid") and they'll go lower before this is over, so I merely keep track of the ones I like but I don't buy. I hope to do that at the bottom (a dream, but at least it won't be anywhere near this manic top). Shorting in this market has cost every major professional short I know a bag full. Most are men of considerable analytical talent, (not dumb momentum nerds) who in normal markets do very well. In the tech sector, in normal markets, shorts do well, because the majority of tech stocks that make it to "publicly traded" status usually blaze then flop. This market is truly dangerous. It has smashed most shorts, and it will inevitably crush most longs. Many think that they will "see the signs" (as provided by their omega programs,...a joke) and will get their sell orders in before the final crunch. Not even a possibility. The phones are taken off the hook when the going gets tough. MB's 90/10 is intelligent. So is going to cash/short term paper, preferably in a stronger currency than the U.S. dollar, (which is already in trouble and heading for a heck of a lot more). I like deep-out-of-the-money put options as they allow reasonable cost and good exposure. I wouldn't and can't go long anything in this market. I do find shorting the "mortally wounded" is a good mania period strategy. This is as simple as shorting companies that are in or close to chapter 11. Much homework is required but they pay off well. They work because hype and hope keeps the prices abnormally high until the actual debt conversion or complete disintegration occurs. They are particularly good when a bit of news provides a spike (which usually subsides shortly thereafter). I see the tech sector as a superb area from which to select put targets. Best, Earlie