To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (13865 ) 1/19/1999 1:05:00 PM From: Alan Hume Respond to of 93625
Hi bp Dr Greenspan : A very good point. Allow me to publish an extract from VectorVest views this week "Watch Dr. Greenspan. The market got hit last week. Was it due to the onset of the Presidential impeachment trial? Japan's foreign-exchange intervention to strengthen the yen? Brazil's devaluation of the real? Abbey Joseph Cohen's allocation reduction of stocks from 72% to 70%? Disappointing fourth quarter and year-end earnings reports? The big increase in new jobs? Or was it due to plain, old profit taking? While the Brazilian devaluation takes most of the blame for the market's sorry performance, it's no big deal. Think about last year, except for the actions of one man, the market was doing reasonably well, despite the political turmoil in Washington and world-wide financial chaos. This man, Dr. Alan Greenspan ultimately dictated the fate of the U. S. Stock Market. Early in the year, his public comments regarding monetary policy were supportive and reassuring. In July, however, he became somewhat strident, saying that he didn't expect the Fed to lower interest rates anytime soon. (See Greenspan the Gloomster, July 24, 1998). The market tanked and did not recover until he began lowering interest rates several months later. So what will Dr. Greenspan do now? The general feeling is that due to the recovery of the stock market, signs of revival in Asia, and the steady performance of the U.S. economy, Dr. Greenspan is not likely to reduce interest rates in the near future. While the Brazilian debacle may alter this view, my concern is whether the strength of the stock market, and the economy will spook him into tightening monetary policy. It may be a lot of fun watching the President and the Senate's impreachment trial on C-span, but when it gets down to the health of your portfolio, Watch Dr. Greenspan "" Be careful!!! Alan