Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: md1derful who wrote (11999)	1/19/1999 3:03:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Doc, if memory serves...TBR didn't bat an eyelash when it went ex last year. In fact seems it went up. All depends on the mood tomorrow morning I guess. sf

To: md1derful who wrote (11999)	1/19/1999 3:07:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

WEEKAHEAD-LatAm stocks seen stepping to Samba beat Reuters, Sunday, January 17, 1999 at 18:25 CARACAS, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Policy statements and market movements in regional economic powerhouse Brazil were seen setting the tone for Latin American equities markets this week after a roller-coaster ride in the wake of Brazil's devaluation. After giving in to pressure to allow its real currency to float Friday, Brazil's central bank said it would announce a new foreign exchange policy on Monday. Although markets across the region cheered the real float Friday, recovering some of the steep losses of previous days, analysts said investors remained concerned about the Brazilian economy, the world's eighth largest, and the possibility of "contagion" to neighboring countries. In BRAZIL itself stocks are set for some volatile sessions this week after the blue chip Bovespa index (INDEX:$BVSP.X) ended last week with a breathtaking 33 percent rise, applauding the Central Bank's move to float the country's currency. The move relieved investor concerns that the government will prove unable to support the battered currency, the real, amid a persistent wave of dollar outflows. Dollar flight has totaled more than $5 billion so far in January. But shares will be taking some blind turns this week as investors await Monday's Central Bank announcement on the new foreign exchange policy. "There are no targets whatsoever. People are just living day by day," said Evandro dos Reis, chief trader at local Indusval brokerage. "Who knows what will happen after Monday, when the Central Bank announces a new policy?" Some equity analysts said a murky outlook on Brazil's interest rates could also take the heat out of Friday's rally. Overnight rates were 29 percent Friday, but in futures contracts had risen up to 55 percent for the next months. "There will be more people uncomfortable at Friday's levels, and there is a lot of digestion to be done," said Santiago Millan, Latin American strategist at I.D.E.A. consultants. "For example, will they be lowering interest rates?" ARGENTINE shares were expected to continue glued to developments in Brazil, its largest trading partner, after the country's financial dramas last week slam-dunked the market some 20 percent before rebounding more than 12 percent Friday. On the week, the MerVal <.MERV> index of most traded shares was still down 10 percent at 382.37 points. "We're definitely going to continue in a very volatile market," said Paula Premrou, an analyst with Lopez Leon brokerage. "What's going to be crucial is the demand for reais and whether interest rates fall. If they manage to lower interest rates, Brazil's outlook should improve. But if they have another run against the real and it sinks to 2 per dollar, well, that's a different story," she said. The real closed Friday at around 1.43 to the dollar. MEXICAN stock watchers said they would keep a close eye on the local peso to see whether its surprising rally in response to Brazil floating its currency could be sustained and continue to lure buyers back to the bourse. Dealers had feared for months that a devaluation in Brazil would be a disaster for Mexico, yet the peso bounced on Friday from historic lows and bargain-hunters flooded the bourse. "If this means international capital flows are not going to dry up, then that improves the fundamentals. But we have to still be cautious in terms of what happens in one day," said Felix Boni, analyst at Credit Lyonnais' Mexico branch. Despite strong gains by the 35-share IPC index on Friday, when it closed at 3617.77 points, the Mexican Bolsa did not fully recover from a prior nine-day losing streak and lost 0.6 percent for the week, and was down 12 percent in dollar terms for the year to date. While other Latin American markets continued to ride the so-called "Samba effect", VENEZUELA is expected to detach from the turmoil this week, instead watching for policy statements from President-elect Hugo Chavez. Chavez, who returns from a six-nation tour of Europe, Canada and Cuba today, encouraged investors last week with his decision to re-appoint respected technocrat Maritza Izaguirre as finance minister. Analysts saw the move as a sign that Chavez recognized the need for continued fiscal reform and close cooperation with multilateral organizations. While feeling the effects of the Brazilian financial crisis, Venezuelan stocks fared better than most, with the general <.IBC> ending the week off 10.2 percent. caracas.newsroom@reuters.com)) Copyright 1999, Reuters News Service

To: md1derful who wrote (11999)	1/19/1999 3:10:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Brazil's Malan sees Congress voting fiscal reforms Reuters, Sunday, January 17, 1999 at 19:32 BRASILIA, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Brazilian Finance Minister Pedro Malan said in an interview published on Sunday that it was not true Congress was preventing urgent fiscal reforms from being approved, and that a crucial vote would take place this week. Malan also told Epoca news magazine some of the terms of a $41.5 billion bailout led by the International Monetary Fund and the U.S. Treasury would have to be reviewed following the devaluation of the real currency, "but not the fiscal part." Epoca did not make clear whether it spoke to Malan before or after Friday's free-float of the real, once the proud linchpin of an economic stabilization plan that ended soaring inflation. Most of Malan's comments appeared to refer to last Wednesday's attempt at a controlled 8 percent devaluation. "People always say the fiscal stabilization program isn't working. Many analysts say Congress isn't responding to the program. That's not correct; it's not true," Malan said. Investor patience with the world's eighth biggest economy ran out this month because of a series of indications that Brazil was having insurmountable trouble trying to narrow its 8 percent of gross domestic product public sector deficit. In December, Congress rejected a law that would have increased pension contributions from civil servants and levied pension contributions on retired civil servants. That blow was followed this month by a unilateral debt moratorium by Minas Gerais state on debt owed to the federal government. Malan said the amount of money involved was negligible but the use of the word moratorium spooked traders. "It's an instinctive reaction for a trader," he said. Malan said the pension contribution proposal would be put to a new vote in Congress this week after government allies reached an accord on the measure. He also noted that 18 of Brazil's 27 state governors had declared they would not default on their debt to Brasilia. In addition, concerns that a special tax on financial transactions, known as the CPMF or check tax, would not start to be collected for several months should be removed by proposals to fill the income gap with funds from elsewhere. Malan traveled to Washington over the weekend for talks with IMF and U.S. Treasury officials and said he might try and get Brazil's international backers to speed up a second disbursement of cash. Copyright 1999, Reuters News Service

To: md1derful who wrote (11999)	1/19/1999 3:18:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Central Bank raises interest rates to fight off inflation São Paulo, 19 - Brazil's Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) interrupted Monday the interest rates downwards trend in an impromptu meeting carried out last night 10 days ahead of schedule. The assistance rate (TBAN) was raised to 41% from 36%, whereas the basic rate (TBC) was lowered to 25% from 29%. The Central Bank has suspended TBC operations, however only until Copom's next meeting, slated for March 3. Meanwhile, the TBAN will serve as the prime lending rate in the place of TBC. In the communiqué released Monday, the Central Bank informed that real interest rates will be projected daily with the institution's operations in the market. Exchange The real floated freely Monday, without any interventions from the federal government. With that, the Brazilian currency closed the day at US$1.59 per dollar, weaker by 7.81% on Monday and by 23.82% since the past Wednesday. Fiscal adjustment Finance minister, Pedro Malan, announced Monday Brazil would adopt new fiscal adjustment measures to be discussed with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Interamerican Development Bank (IDB) over the coming weeks. (O Estado de S. Paulo/ Jornal da Tarde/ Folha de S.Paulo/ Gazeta Mercantil/ Jornal do Brasil/ O Globo. Edited by Sergio Caldas)

To: md1derful who wrote (11999)	1/19/1999 3:27:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Governors give Cardoso ultimatum over debts issue São Paulo, 19 - Seven opposition state governors (Acre, Alagoas, Amazonas, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul), headed by former President and current Minas Gerais governor Itamar Franco, handed Cardoso Monday a proposal that the payments on states' debts with the federal government be halted for the period of one year. The governors also gave Cardoso an ultimatum until February 5 to decide over renegotiation demands. In addition, they asked the government to suspend the blocking of state resources for as long as negotiations are carried out. Despite the governors' willingness to negotiate, meeting host Franco reaffirmed he did not intend to review the moratorium declared on January 6. Some 3,000 people Monday marched along the streets of Belo Horizonte, capital city of Minas Gerais, in support to the state's moratorium. (O Estado de S. Paulo/ Jornal da Tarde/ Folha de S.Paulo/ Gazeta Mercantil/ Jornal do Brasil/O Globo)