To: lorne who wrote (26501 ) 1/19/1999 7:39:00 PM From: Hawkmoon Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116764
Sounds to me like a warning from the ECB that they plan on keeping a lid on any volatile short-squeeze even if they have to sell some of their reserves to do it. I would imagine they're working to unwind some of these short positions in gold but warning the market that they will do it on their terms, not the markets. Let's face it... they were sending a message. It's not like a European Central Bank is that hard up for the cash to sell a measly ton of gold. What I'm also wondering is, if Bill Murphy is reading this, if his information coming out of Goldman-Sachs may be a red-herring to keep the gold market from going below bottom support. I was dwelling on this last night and today, trying to once again game play a scenario where the Fed would find it in their interest to devalue the US dollar, other than helping to trim the trade deficit. Devaluing the dollar, I believe, would be an act of desperation on the Fed's part, that would almost certainly guarantee that overseas export based economies (other than commodities), would be thrust into depression. These battered countries require a strong market to sell to if they have any chance of salvaging their economies (not that I beleive they do due to perceived Y2K vulnerabilities). Devaluing the US dollar is tantamount to "punching out" and leaving your fellow economic pardners to their fates. I see it coming eventually, but I'm not so sure we're there yet. Sorry to be so fickle in my analysis, but I have had time to rethink some of my thoughts in order to predict what is really going on. I think the Fed is seeking some stability in the gold markets, especially at these low prices until they can fix the hedge fund mess and unwind their gold short positions without stirring the goldbugs to a fierce rally. Once they are unwound to an acceptable limit, then gold will likely be permitted to rise. It sucks, it's probably manipulation, and it's likely something that the Hunt brothers, or any of us, would get thrown in jail for. But there are likely greater stakes at risk that justify the means being used. Whaddya think Bill?? Regards, Ron