To: Arthur who wrote (20295 ) 1/19/1999 11:30:00 PM From: Kerry Lee Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29386
Arthur you wrote: <<So why a press release on it now. Is it possible that Brocade is getting nervous. Perhaps they hope not to be buried and forgotten under the avalanche of news coming soon from Ancor. >> I disagree with your theory. Brocade is alive and well, despite reports of technical problems with the Silkworm. While I am optimistic of continued positive developments for Ancor that will most likely span the entire year AND it would not surprise me to see Ancor-related news within the next several days/weeks, I also fully expect Brocade to have OEM wins to announce, including Tier 1, perhaps as soon as Q1/Q2 of this year. It remains to be seen what the competitive SANscape will look like 1 year from today, but I do think both Ancor and Brocade will still be competing for OEMs ,albeit perhaps one or both as divisions of larger companies. Ancor's technology is strong/proprietary, their cost structure is more than competitive and they have addressed corporate issues and plugged the holes in their infrastructure to meet OEM needs ( eg Vp Operations/QC, dedicated OEM account mgrs, after-sales service, etc,etc.) If the informed investor believes these factors will result in Ancor winning a fair share of the OEM's ( 25-60% )by the end of 1999, then ANCR looks like a good pure Fibre Channel investment play. The flipside is that even in a worst case scenerio of Ancor not winning a bigger piece of the pie, they will surely be bought out for their technology. Last year ( Sept 98) FORE Systems bought Berkeley , an ATM start-up company for a consideration of 8.64 million shares of FORE stock plus $30 million cash hold-back ( contingent on hitting technology milestones )..That roughly equates to $200 million for a company that had ZERO revenues, zero customers, and net assets of $7.6 million. Ancor already has a working, stable, interoperable FC technology in its 5th/6th generation with upgrades on the horizon. Not to mention customers like Boeing, Inrange, Prisa/SGI, etc.. Also, regarding valuations,look at some of the Internets which defy gravity. Broadcast.com ( BCST ) has 9 months trailing revenues of approx $12 million...the last time I checked, their 17 million shares multiplied by $139 translated to a $2.4 Billion market cap.