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Technology Stocks : Aware, Inc. - Hot or cold IPO? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim McCormick who wrote (5449)	1/20/1999 10:03:00 AM
From: Paul Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9236

at what price--opps is it up again Alcatel No.1 in ADSL Vendor Market, According to a New Report by Ryan Hankin Kent PLANO, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 20, 1999--Alcatel (NYSE:ALA) is the leading ADSL vendor in North America and globally, according to a report recently released by Ryan Hankin Kent (RHK), a leading telecommunications market research firm. Alcatel is the clear market leader among ADSL vendors, with 52 percent market share in North America, the RHK study reports. The study noted that Alcatel has delivered more than 400 Digital Subscriber Line Access Multiplexer (DSLAMS) in North America in 1998, allowing several million potential ADSL users to connect to high speed Internet service. Alcatel supplies its ADSL equipment to major Regional Bell Operating Companies (RBOCs), including Ameritech, BellSouth, and SBC PacBell. Its Canadian customers include Bell Canada and Sasktel. Globally, Alcatel has also established the leading ADSL market position with more than 35 percent market share. Its customers include Singapore Telecom, Belgacom, Telefonica in Spain, France Telecom and Turk Telecom. Pilot projects have also been ordered by Korea, Japan, and Denmark. "Alcatel is starting to build its lead in the ADSL arena with its selection as the established vendor for the Joint Procurement Consortium (JPC) of Ameritech, BellSouth, Pacific Bell, and Southwestern Bell," said RHK Senior Analyst Claude Romans, who authored the "Loop Access Systems: Technology and Markets" report. "ADSL rollout is underway, targeting subscribers who will pay a premium for high speed Internet and work at home access," Romans added. "All major network operators are committed to introducing ADSL access and are in the process of installing an infrastructure that covers a large part of their network. Subscriber demand for high-speed Internet access and residential access to the corporate network are driving adoption of DSL (digital subscriber line) technologies." Alcatel's vertical integration of its chipset and modems allows it to control product performance and costs, Romans added. He expects ADSL to play a key role in Internet access by supplying ADSL to businesses, a market segment that is key for Alcatel's customers. "We are pleased that RHK has confirmed Alcatel's ADSL market leadership," said Mike Pisterzi, Alcatel's Senior Vice President for its Access Products Division in North America. "This data is evidence of Alcatel's sound strategy based upon open standards, interoperability and superior product design." The Alcatel 1000 ADSL product family complies fully with NEBS and ANSI T1.413 Issue 2 standards. Alcatel's open architecture for customer premise equipment, high density DSLAM central office offering, universal DLC Mini-RAM, and ATM transport have helped make it the choice of major carriers worldwide. The new "Loop Access Systems: Technology and Markets" report by RHK explores the $100 million 1998 ADSL market by addressing its technology directions, competition, deployment, rollout and standards associated with ADSL adoption in North America. Ryan Hankin Kent, Inc., is a leading market research and consulting firm specializing in the analysis of advanced technologies for the public telecommunications network. The company provides syndicated services and custom consulting to technology vendors, service providers, and the investment community. RHK is based in South San Francisco, Calif. For complete service offerings, please contact Mike Mahan at 650/737-9600 x233. For more information, visit the company's Web site at www.rhk.com

To: Tim McCormick who wrote (5449)	1/20/1999 10:34:00 AM
From: Scrapps	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9236

Why not just short the market?

To: Tim McCormick who wrote (5449)	1/20/1999 2:01:00 PM
From: Steve Rolfe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9236

Didn't know if this was posted after the AOL announcement... Stephens Inc. Research Bulletin January 13, 1999 Rev. Mkt. Cap AWARE, INC. FYDec. ($ Mil) EPS P/E ($ Mil) AWRE - $36 Rating: BUY 97A $6.2 ($0.23) NM $733.2 Price Target (12 mo.): $45 98E 11.8 (0.13) NM Charles W. Pluckhahn, CFA 99E 21.5 0.14 257.1x (617) 574-0017 00E 32.0 0.39 92.3x AOL Gets Behind ADSL; Raising Price Target to $45 Bell Atlantic and America Online have announced a joint venture to bring Internet content to phone customers via Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line starting in 1999. The numbers of homes to be passed are 7.5 million by the end of 1999 and 14 million by the end of 2000. Including yesterday's announcement by SBC Communications, Regional Bells have now publicly committed to being able to offer ADSL connectivity to upwards of 25 million customers by the end of next year. And that's not counting Ameritech, BellSouth, U.S. West, the major independent telcos or any of the interexchange carriers such as MCI Worldcom and Sprint, which have made noises about rolling out ADSL-based services. As a result of the two announcements, we are reiterating our BUY rating on Aware's shares and have raised our one-year price target from $32 to $45 to reflect the great level of certainty that ADSL will be introduced into the telephone network in mass quantities in 1999 and 2000. In the coming weeks we will be reviewing our financial projections for Company results, particularly our very conservative assumptions of the number of personal computers that we have forecast to be equipped with ADSL-capable modems. After Aware reports its earnings on January 26, we expect to issue a fresh set of projections and make further adjustments in our price target. We have always believed that America Online would have to associate itself with ADSL and have for several years been attentive to various trial projects and rumors to that effect. The refusal of cable companies to allow the telephone company equivalent of equal access for Internet portals such as AOL, and the federal government's evident reluctance to force such access, has added an element of urgency to the need by AOL to secure broadband pathways to customers. From the telcos' point of view, the AOL alliance will be a powerful drawing card for the mass consumer market. We assume that AOL will strike more DSL distribution deals with the phone companies, which in turn should lend additional credibility to the mass-market roll-out scenario that has provided the underpinnings for our initial recommendation of Aware shares on September 29 at $7.25 and subsequent increases in price targets as technical and marketing milestones have been met. Our valuation is based on our belief that Aware can earn $0.63 per share, fully taxed, in 2001. Now that key milestones are being met, we have raised our target multiple on the Company's shares from 60 times forward 12-months earnings to 80 times forward 12-months earnings, to reach a target of $50.40 by the beginning of 2001. We have discounted that back at a 10% rate to a year from the most recently reported earnings by the Company, to arrive at a price target of $45 by the end of the third quarter of 1999.