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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tonyt who wrote (35524)	1/20/1999 1:08:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Amazon has declined since JAN 8th when it had it's final blow-of for the year, IMO. Amazon won't soon match, let alone exceed that high. Maybe it can reach taht level if the Internet fever picks up toward the end of '99 or in early 2000. But for the nxt few months the path of least resistance is down. Although Amazon has come down a lot, there has still not been a high volume decline or downside blow-off. The chances for a significant rally or test of the highs is diminished. What has happened? Before Jan 8th bull ANALS, such as Blodget, failed to pronounce the top. After the stock had retreated 20% over a few days Mr. B. ANAL safely predicted that Amazon could move down 40% to 60% but he sleasily couched his remarks by saying that it could also move up 30%. Meanwhile, OpCo was advising their clients to exit the stock. That tells you one thing for sure - it was good to be a favored client of OpCo but not to listen too much to the public advice of their six figure Inet ANAL! (ever wonder how these ANALS can afford to get paid that much?). On JAN 8th the momentum of psychology shifted. Almost everyone knew that AMZN could not move up forever and wa radically over-priced. But most had grown weary of trying to bet against the move. One of the key indicators of market psychology is how the market reacts to good or bad news: When a market has reached a bottom bad news tends to have a muted effect while good news spurs an upward move. Investors have developed fears that have festered out of proportion to reality. Likewise, when a market has reached a top, good news has little or no effect because it has been anticipated and blown out of proportion to reality. The Internut stocks are emotionally charged such that tops are often reached before positive events. That is why YAHOO! has trended down immediately following past earnings reports even though they beat analysts estimates. And that is why the recent IPOs have not had a stimulating effect on Amazon's stock. The stock moved up on ANITICIPATION of a great Fall/Christmas sales season and now has less to look forward to. Technical chart analysis just shows what is happening with market psycology. The odds increase when extremes are reached. Such a rare point was reached in all the indicators on JAN 8th that a decline was almost certain. IMO, we will likely see a rally attempt along the way but Amazon will continue to head down by another 40% to 60% by this summer.