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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph J. Clark who wrote (27804)	1/20/1999 9:33:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Joseph, I want to remount this stock...but is now the time? From my past experience, since originally purchased AMAT at $26.875 I have seen many get excluded from AMAT's run up. You were probably in the 20% tax bracket when you were forced out but had a good gain. Tito, Big Bucks, myself and others seem to think that AMAT will go up from here especially after we got the good BTB, orders and shipment numbers. IMO, I can see stock running up $14 from the recent low of $50 to $64. Once it gets into Tito's $63 to $100 range no one knows how quickly or how high the stock will go. You can see that sooner may be better than later. AMAT earnings come out in February. With AMAT backing off its $59 15/16 high today, IMO, we should be seeing $64 within the next month. However, you already have made some great money. Just my $.02. Paul

To: Joseph J. Clark who wrote (27804)	1/21/1999 9:01:00 AM
From: klaus pluszynski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Joe, while I haven't got the answer to your question, here's two things I would consider in timing the entry into the Semi-Eq's: 1. The bookings component of SEMI's BTB-Number has been rising quite steady over the last months. But December is often seasonally strong, followed by a relatively weak first quarter. Flattening of the order numbers could happen in Q1/1999, just as it did in '98 and '97. 2. The Yen has been very strong against the US-Dollar over the last three months, boosting competitiveness of the US-based manufacturers vs. their Japanese competitors. Central bank interventions in Japan might indicate a sideways trend over the next months. Bottom line: The next months could see a mild decline in the Semi-Eq. stocks, but with a two year horizon, this should be a good opportunity to enter the market. Good luck, Klaus