To: Richard B. Haenisch who wrote (4767 ) 1/20/1999 4:59:00 PM From: Lane Hall-Witt Respond to of 27722
To be quite honest, I truly believe that it will be extremely difficult for NAVR or any other stock to get the expected effect from an IPO spinoff, the way we saw the others have (MALL and DBCC). It'll be interesting to see how the Nets look a few weeks down the line. I've actually been a bear on the Nets for a long time, because I'm heavily indoctrinated in "value" modeling; despite this, I've managed to do well trading some Nets just by playing the tape, rather than thinking about valuations. Looking forward, I have both a rosy picture and a doomsday scenario. The rosy picture: a lot of us got a lot of profits out and are sitting on a lot of cash, waiting for the dip to play itself out and fire up the sector again. On top of that, there's still a ton of money that missed the Net rally entirely; and I wouldn't be surprised if some of that dough came into play as well. I've read a lot of articles on the Net investing phenomenon, and one theme that seems to run beneath the surface is that the pros are wondering how the hell they missed the whole thing. So are their clients: "How come my portfolio is up 5.36% when every stock I read about is up 30, 40, 50 percent?" As companies like AMZN, YHOO, EBAY, and the like come into range 30-60% below their highs, they may begin to look "affordable" again. There definitely is a lot of cash on the sidelines right now, despite the intense rally we've enjoyed these past few months. Look at AMG Data (http://www.amgdata.com/) to see money-flow figures. There's $1.42 trillion in money markets right now, which is a lot of cash on the outside looking in. The doomsday scenario for the Nets is the obvious one: all of a sudden the market becomes a rational place, and we suddenly return to value investing. Maybe, but I doubt it. There's still just too much money in too many hands for such a wave of rationality, I think. At the moment, NAVR is the only Net stock I'm in with short-term money. But I'm definitely looking for buying opportunities in the sector, and I find it hard to believe I'm alone in that. If there are enough of us looking to go back in, the sector will move again (probably not as dramatically as this last rally, though!). Just my two cents' worth--.