SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Computer Associates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: BostonView who wrote (3110)1/20/1999 5:16:00 PM
From: Marq Spencer  Respond to of 5232
 
BV,
CA closed up today while BMCS, CPWR, and NETA all struggled tremendously. I think that CA would've had a much better day, but for these others pulling down the management solutions sector.

Three different analysts upped targets for CA. I think that unless the market tanks, we're looking at mid 50's soon.

- Brian.



To: BostonView who wrote (3110)1/20/1999 5:51:00 PM
From: David Mullins  Respond to of 5232
 
I have to agree, I did basically the same thing; sold half of my
options(deep in the money). The great thing with them is they weren't
deep in the money when I bought them (gloat)! While there is a possibility that CA goes up over 50, I think this market tires and
takes CA back down to 40. Then it'll be time to load up again.



To: BostonView who wrote (3110)1/20/1999 7:04:00 PM
From: Edwarda  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 5232
 
"It looks like the whole sector is coming under a cloud of uncertainty...."

I'd have to agree--except that the sector has been under a clould since CA warned that the high-end mainframe software faced a slowdown. (For which the management was reviled, remember?)

I found it interesting that although mainframe revenues were down 8%, they were higher than I expected and than most of the Street expected. And note that the company made the numbers with no broad sales contest and without the help from large deals that used to buoy results. And we haven't yet seen the impact of IBM's mainframe product cycle, which usually takes around nine months to translate into software sales for CA.

Compuware is definitely having a negative effect on CA and on BMC. I suspect that there is more going there of a company-specific nature than meets the eye.

And, of course, what's hitting everybody who has been growing by acquisition is the SEC's focus on writing off in-process R&D. (NETA is acting like death, understandably, and is probably a buy right now.) CA says that there is no problem, but, undoubtedly, it's a drag on the multiple while this issue is pending.

I agree that it may be a bit choppy over the near term, but I'd be accumulating, i.e., buying on weakness with a 12-month horizon.