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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (35489)	1/20/1999 8:56:00 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Respond to of 95453

Slider, I don't question the long term view that we are headed for much, much higher oil prices and demand that far exceeds that of today. Noesis hasn't changed his outlook that much, IMHO. He remains the only analyst who called sub $10 oil for this winter and it happened(he made that call a year ago!). he also called for a recovery in late 99 early 2000. I do agree that buying now(not on margin) the best companies and either trading or selling calls is an excellent strategy. RIG counnt is still dropping along with rates, ESV lost a handful oh barge contracts today from Venezuela.... I don't think we've seen the bottom for rig rates or rig count yet. Personally, I would like to see oil hold above 13, rates stabilize and the rig count start to climb. Then i would load up for the long term agin.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (35489)	1/20/1999 10:27:00 PM
From: Hrothgar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

A current example of the effect low oil prices have on production. The important point of this article is the last sentence. Also, I couldn't resist responding to the best Oilman's restaurant in Texas question. One of my favorites is "Soto's". Great enchiladas and hot sauce with exceptional tortillas and refried beans. Located in Oilton, Webb County, Texas, about 30 miles from Laredo. I think you can buy used pumping units for "yard art" next door. Tuesday January 19, 9:24 pm Eastern Time Enbridge oil pipeline space not rationed in Feb. CALGARY, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Enbridge Pipelines Inc. said on Tuesday it did not need to ration space on any of its Canada-U.S. oil and petroleum products pipelines in February because nominations from shippers did not exceed capacity. Space on the pipeline system, the main crude oil artery to the U.S. Midwest and southern Ontario refining markets from western Canada, has not been apportioned since December. However, Edmonton-based Enbridge Pipelines, a unit of Enbridge Inc. (Toronto:ENB.TO - news) of Calgary, said nominations for Line 1, the petroleum products and gas liquids line, and Line 3, which moves mostly heavy crude oil, were at capacity. ''Therefore, increases in nominations (for the two pipelines) cannot be accepted at this time,'' Enbridge spokesman Alan Roth said. Canadian light and heavy crude oil supplies have grown tight as a result of big cutbacks in drilling budgets among producers pressured by low oil prices.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (35489)	1/21/1999 6:51:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Well now the ''Story'' seems to be changing...surprise, surprise ! biz.yahoo.com <<Big cutbacks in drilling and still-large numbers of shut-in wells among Canadian producers stung by depressed benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude prices have led to the tight supplies, as did a draw on Canadian light and heavy blends during a major U.S. pipeline outage early this year.>> ******************************************************* << U.S. Crude Supply Fell 2.2 Mln Barrels to 321.9 Mln, Contrary to Forecasts >> ''CONTRARY TO FORECASTS'' !!!!!! - I love those words !!! Those words make us lots of money !!! <<Washington, Jan. 20 (Bloomberg Energy) -- U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 2.164 million barrels to 321.9 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 15, the American Petroleum Institute said in its latest weekly report. The latest API figures show U.S. crude oil inventories are 3.80 million barrels up compared with the same period a year ago.>> We are ONLY up 3.80 million barrels compared to last year ! - we just dropped 2.164 Million barrels last week ! - in a damn week or two, we could be at, or below last years supply levels and going lower each week ! ***************************************************** <<Weekly imports of crude oil to the U.S. increased by 0.1 million barrels a day to 8.2 million b/d. Last year the U.S. imported 9.2 million b/d of foreign crude.>> * Importing 10% / 1 million less barrels of crude from last year. Factor in the catastrophic loss of all the shut ins and stripper wells domestically and the supply/demand equation is NOT as dreary as everyone is forecasting. More important than the ''statistics'' is the ''trend.'' The trend is changing, E&P cutbacks, lowered Cap Ex spending and all the ramifications of the old saying; ''the cure for low Oil prices, are low Oil prices'' - are starting to show up in the statistics. We are now at such a small amount of excess supply on a historic basis; that if the ''numbers'' are wrong - as they are alleged to be... ie: the Congressional investigation into the phantom 300 Million barrels of missing oil and the legitimacy of the IEA/API numbers etc. Then any ''slight'' upside surprise in Global (especially Asian) demand; will create a whipsaw reaction in the ''real-world'' crude pricing dynamics ! We are literally watching before our eyes; the story unfold about the allegations that the price of crude oil globally has been artificially depressed by traders to a degree far surpassing the relationship of the actual supply demand numbers. Also, the historic norms in terms of actual ''days of use'' in storage are being ignored, because they also prove the illegitamacy of the degree of the fluctuation in crude prices in relation to the degree of actual supply levels. This story is gradually unfolding. History is a stern teacher; everyone is ignoring her lessons from the past. Just when we write off the power of historic cycles in commodity pricing, we become destined to be taught another powerfull lesson by history. It's now classtime and ''history'' is about to teach us another lesson here... This IS a historic opportunity here folks; everyone is responsible for picking their own entry point price-wise and the risk vs. reward factors are certainly related to the changing fundamentals; but the main factor is - you ''gotta be in'' on this one... and it is going to payoff BIG, if one beats the crowd to the party here in the Oilpatch !