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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mintu Pal who wrote (42409)	1/20/1999 11:50:00 PM
From: Kerry Phineas	Respond to of 53903

Mintu, will be buying some puts within a week. Think the internets are done but the semis have a bit more to run before they get massacred. From Fleckenstein's Market Rap: I'd like to share a comment made by Justin Mamis this morning about the kind of shenanigans that go on in the form of analysts' expectations and "beating the number," and this little game that gets played. "Way back when, 'they' discovered that a stock failing to meet estimates got clobbered, so the analysts and companies conspired to lower estimates, and the extreme reactions faded away; then, doing a penny better, became viewed as enormously successful, so the analysts and companies got together again to make sure estimates were low enough to be exceeded. Analysts no longer had to work to be different - First Call became the important judge, so it made more sense to be in line than to try to be different. Now what we hear has changed yet again - they 'know' that XYZ is going to exceed estimates, but don't bother to raise their estimates which they admittedly 'know' are inadequate, because what they get paid to forecast is the exceeding of their estimate, not the meeting of it. Isn't 'Analysts expect MSFT to exceed estimates' a complex form of an oxymoron? But some poor slob somewhere is supposed to be surprised. Maybe that's why they report after the close - to give time for investors in Uzbekistan to get excited."

To: Mintu Pal who wrote (42409)	1/21/1999 1:17:00 AM
From: SlowThinker	Respond to of 53903

>Is any one else BULLISH? Yes, Mintu, I am still bullish. First off, note the below link to a Reuter's news story detailing how Intel is investing $100 million in Samsung, with the money specifically earmarked for RDRAM (Rambus DRAM) production/development. biz.yahoo.com Without a doubt, Micron bears will look at this and say that this is a bad thing for Micron. Will it aid a strong Micron competitor? Yes, it probably will. HOWEVER, the bigger picture is this: Intel needs enough RDRAM in the market to support its efforts to sell more--and faster--DRAM's. It is clear to people inside the industry--Intel specifically included--that there is nowhere near enough RDRAM capacity coming on line to satisfy the projected demand. The bottom line to this bigger picture? 1. Micron will be able to sell every RDRAM piece they make, and they will be able to sell them all at a great profit. No numbers to attach to this, just a macro approach to industry dynamics. 2. Based on this and the facts that (1) we are entering a strong DRAM up-cycle with not nearly enough fab capacity to satisfy demand over the next year or two, (2) Micron will have a much larger market share than the last time we were in such a cycle (and when they had a $90's stock price), and (3) Micron is virtually alone in bringing next generation line geometry (i.e., .18 micron) fab lines online, I would say that $75 for Micron is still cheap. I am confident that--barring any major global meltdown--we will easily see Micron at $100 to 125 before the end of this year...and it wouldn't surprise me to see the stock above $125 to 150 in the next 11 months. SlowThinkingly yours, ----------------------------------- biz.yahoo.com Wednesday January 20, 11:35 pm Eastern Time Intel to invest $100 mln in Samsung Elec SEOUL, Jan 21 (Reuters) - South Korean chipmaker Samsung Electronics Co Ltd said on Thursday Intel Corp had agreed to invest $100 million by purchasing its convertible bonds. Samsung Electronics spokesman James Chung told Reuters that the two companies were due to formally sign a contract in early February. "We plan to spend all of the money in Direct Rambus DRAM (dynamic random access memory) production lines," Chung said. Full conversion of the bonds would grant about a one percent stake in Samsung to Intel, which currently holds no stake, he said, adding more details would be announced soon. Samsung Electronics, flagship unit of the Samsung Group [SAGR.CN], is the world's largest DRAM supplier.

To: Mintu Pal who wrote (42409)	1/24/1999 2:26:00 AM
From: Kerry Phineas	Respond to of 53903

Mintu, I'm not. I bought some puts this week and think there will be a pullback early next week, weakness until mid February, at which point the market (and not necessarly the semi's) will strengthen again. The semi's move with their fundamentals to an extent, and I think there will be some weakness in the early part of the year as a result of an inventory buildup in computers. People are monkeys, but in the near term I think that there will be a selloff in the semi's as prices weaken more. After the selloff people may tend to follow with the herd, which will probably be led by the monopoly producers (MSFT, and the former and possibly future monopoly INTC.)