To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (35492 ) 1/20/1999 10:39:00 PM From: Elmer Respond to of 95453
Hi Slider. FWIW, here is what I have been buying and why: Everytime PTEN has fell below $4 (obviously I have had a lot of opportunities) I have been buying shares. If one is bullish that oil prices are going up throughout the year this is the one company IMO that is the most leveraged to increased oil prices. IMO, this is the closest thing to buying an oil futures contract but with ownership in assets and no expiration while buying at spot prices. As you stated, you can't rule out a takeover either. UTI and PTEN would be a perfect combo. If my memory serves me correct, PTEN's top management is up there is age while UTI is headed up by some young and aggressive financial oriented individuals. I also love OII as you do. OII and CDIS are two companies with great technologies for the deepwater that will still be posting some pretty good numbers that are not being respected. OII's umbilicals are going to be in high demand once these deepwater finds are ready for development. Also, one has to like CDIS and OII's ROV business. This is value-added technology that these two companies have vast experience in. In order to do subsea completion which is necessary for deepwater developments, you need ROV's (this is not "dumb iron")to do a lot of the work. With all the work being done in the deepwater how can these two companies not excel over the next few years. I also have been buying BJS for two reasons. BJS' services (frac/stimulation) are vital for natural gas wells. BJS will fly if natural gas prices spike up in the second half of 99 which I think is very likely as we see huge natural gas production fall offs as a result of less drilling and big depletion rates all over North America. With all the new gas turbines demand should also be strong. Secondly, how much longer can BHI wait to buy these guys. If BHI wants to compete with SLB and HAL, they need a pressure pumping segment. BJS is the only pure play out there. I wouldn't buy it solely for a takeout but it has to be factored into the decision. Doug, if you're reading this has your company worked with BJS? If so, any comments? I have also been buying NE as my offshore driller play. Their new EVA's provide some decent visibility. I am worried about cancellations, however, I view it as the best way to play the offshore drillers. You get a hybrid with a good mix of deepwater and jackup assets. I continue to buy PDS below $12. Given the strong incentive to drill for natural gas in Canada, if we get an oil price recovery - IMHO- Canada will be a better place to be than the US. Also, one has to love the fact that PDS drills about 40% of all wells in Canada and is also a large provider of other oilfield services to this market. I feel that because of PDS dominant position they will be one of the first companies able to see utilization increases as well as pricing increases when the market comes back. Can you imagine what PDS could do if heavy oil drilling ever becomes economical again. If one is a believer in a bullish North America natural gas market, PDS has to be one of the best plays in the group - imho. E&P's I have been buying BR because of its exposure to natural gas and DVN because of its stellar track record and its newly acquired Canadian properties. Gook Luck to All