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Technology Stocks : Egghead Computer (EGGS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bullw who wrote (6035)	1/20/1999 10:44:00 PM
From: SAMOA1	Respond to of 8307

Just wanted to note GNET, had higher revenues and a 2 for 1 stock split. A late comer that benefited from taking a piece of the "big boys pie."

To: bullw who wrote (6035)	1/21/1999 7:31:00 AM
From: Anaxagoras	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8307

Hi Bull. <<Seems that analysts following these e-commerce stocks are giving the fourth quarter good revenues, but looking to the next couple are predicting slower growth rates. Are you picking up on this? Hate to say this, but it could spell trouble for eggs even with good revenue growth.>> Well, first, we knew that growth rates were going to slow, and heck, that didn't surprise me even with something like ONSL- you can only have so many quarters of accelerating rates until you flatten out at best. Heck, a string of 3 accelerating quarters is a very nice streak, and anything more is pretty unusual. Second, although a slow down in growth rate was expected, a quarter that was basically sequentially flat was not- however, the cause of this problem might be somewhat specific to ONSL (i.e. the dearth of supply in 4th quarter of surplus/refurb computer products), however it might impact EGGS to a degree. I'm going to tone down my revenue estimate a ways as a result from my very aggressive forecast of $86M (to exactly what I don't know yet). Third, to repeat myself from the earlier post, what was shocking was to abandon what had seemed a promising retail model at so early a juncture; that is very alarming. I'm hoping that ONSL is too early moving into this frontier; pioneers often get shot. <<I'm going to stick with my position as an investor in the long term development of the business model no matter what happens in the next couple of quarters.>> I'm going to see what's in the quarterly; I've never had illusions of EGGS being a "great" company, and for long term investments why settle for anything less? I'll settle for less when a company is merely good and its stock doesn't reflect this, but that's more of a short term play. With EGGS we have a very interesting special situation, basically a turnaround play, but one with a lot of twists. Turnaround plays are usually very frustrating for the first 3 or 4 quarters because early investors see the promise and can't understand why all the folks that got burned the first time around aren't willing to cozy up to the fire once again. Turnaround play? Wait 4 quarters.... Internet play? Wait 4 minutes.... Which is it? Both. Confusing. Anaxagoras' early mornin', mid-coffee thoughts.