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Strategies & Market Trends : Pancho Villa's Short Analysis File -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sid Turtlman who wrote (230)1/21/1999 9:59:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 287
 
I fully agree with your views on the euro. Long term, it won't work. There is no enough labor mobility in Europe to allow fixing of monetary policy (i.e., people in countries with slow economies don't easily move to where the action is. In the USA, the work force moves more readily not uncommon to see people moving from CA to for Example NY or MA). After much debating I am still sticking to the US$, mainly short term treasuries, CDs and federal/state tax exempt money market accounts in the taxable accounts. IMO europe bourses are also in a bubble stage even ig not ads pronounced as the USA.

Even though I should not believe in market timing, I am now out of the US equity market. Will dollar cost average in when thingsget a bit more rational (I may be wrong but I see a 50% chance that the nasdaq index takes a 50% plunge within the next 12 months. I know there are people who have been waiting for this much longer that me but fundamentals will have to return to the market).

Several thoughts have crossed my mind ut I have not taken action on them: japan Webs EWJs metal Benham Gold Equities Index Fund: BGEIX.