To: PAinvestor who wrote (13940 ) 1/21/1999 6:22:00 AM From: unclewest Respond to of 93625
hi pa, hi milehigh, ok i'll tackle it. i don't know how many dram mfrs will survive. i do think you are probably correct in assuming there will be more consolidation and some drop outs. ti has dropped out already. 2 koreans are trying to consolidate. so yes, it is happening. my understanding is that samsung is the largest producing some 25% of the world's dram. i have read several articles that have projected that mu will overtake samsung either end of year or early next. my 50%+ figure is extrapolated from that info. sdram has been unprofitable for the last year or two. these companies are bleeding to death. they desperately need a new profitable product. so here comes rdram to the rescue. it is new tech, faster tech, intel backed tech, short supply tech, etc. problem is you need $100m+ to get into the business. upside is intel wants and needs it and is not only willing to pay but also willing to front the $ to convert you over to rdram production. they gave mu $500m in oct. samsung $100m yesterday. remember too that intel makes 83% of the world's pc chipsets. now you the dram mfr have a choice. continue making unprofitable sdram or switch to rdram and make a profit. intel is offering to give you the $ to convert and promising to buy all of your product. kind of a no-brainer for the dram mfr. the following companies have announced either they have already commenced rdram volume shipments or they have announced that they will this year: fujitsu, hitachi, hyundai,lg semi, matsushita, micron, mitsubishi, nec, oki, samsung, siemens, toshiba, vanguard semi. even ibm is rambus partner and is expected to use some rdram. we rmbs investors have to believe that intel will pull this off, or we should get out now. i believe and i'm rmbs long. unclewest someone recently posted here, as a joke, a made up press release that intel had invested in samsung. it just came true. reh believing it at first said it would be good for 20-30 points. let's see if his projection also comes true.