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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (12872)	1/21/1999 12:23:00 AM
From: Ms. X	Respond to of 34823

baddee badebe ba... Ummm. There is no such thing as calling the top, I have a crystal ball on order but it is taking forever to get here... With that in mind. The only thing you can do is to take profits off the table or stop up your position. There is nothing on AMATs chart that indicates it is time to sell. It is nearing the top of its trading band but stocks can trade past them. If AMAT creates a high pole, use the three box reversal, especially if everything is extended, for a trade exit. If you stop up your position give it some room. Don't worry about getting the absolute top. Trying to time it might cost you some profits one way or the other and perhaps some nights sleep. Not much help I know but sometimes I just like to type... those free spirits don't ya know :-)

To: Paul V. who wrote (12872)	1/21/1999 12:39:00 AM
From: Dennis J.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34823

Peak price for AMAT? Tough job Paul, but here is an idea. Calculate price to free-cash-flow multiples for historical peaks and troughs, and plot these multiples on charts which also show long-term bond multiples (inverse of yields). The next peak should be at a correspondingly higher multiple to match with the expected bond multiple. Then throw in some judgement for the election cycle, impeachment proceedings, world affairs, to arrive at your final multiple line for AMAT. Measure this most recent multiple expansion from trough to the final peak, and take 80% of that expansion, and use it to calculate the final selling price. Finally, deliver these final calculations to Jan ( or whatever her new name is), and do whatever she tells you to do. Very important not to ignore her ultimate recommendations. Good luck. Dennis