Moves and Countermoves in the U.S. Struggle with Osama Bin Laden
Summary:
* Allegations of U.S. Navy electronic intelligence (ELINT)
aircraft operating over Pakistan and the reported arrest in India
of individuals linked to Osama Bin Laden signal further
developments in the ongoing global chess match between the United
States and the Saudi terrorist.
Analysis:
New Delhi police announced on January 20, 1999 that they had
arrested Sayed Abu Nasir, a Bangladeshi citizen reportedly linked
to Osama Bin Laden. According to a police spokesman, Nasir was
part of a seven-man team that planned to attack the U.S. embassy
in New Delhi, as well as consulates in Calcutta and Madras. The
other members of Nasir's team, believed to be from Myanmar,
Egypt, and Sudan, have yet to be apprehended. However, New Delhi
police did reveal that three other individuals linked to Nasir
were arrested recently in the eastern Indian town of Siliguri.
Officials did not provide any other specifics on those arrests,
other than to link them to Nasir. The presence of Bin Laden's
network in India is not a new development; we first reported the
possibility of an attack against U.S. facilities in India last
October (http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/101398.asp).
The report of Nasir's arrest comes on the heels of a reported
violation of Pakistani airspace by U.S. aircraft. On January 18
the Pakistani newspaper "Jang" published an account of U.S. Navy
P-3 Orion aircraft flying over Pakistani territory. According to
Jang, the aircraft were detected over Pakistan on January 14 and
15 by Pakistani civil aviation authorities. The newspaper noted
that the airspace violations, which previously occurred in
conjunction with the U.S. attack on sites in Afghanistan, are now
commonplace and pose a threat to the safety of Pakistani civil
aviation. Jang went on to report that, when the Pakistani air
traffic controller (ATC) asked the U.S. pilot what he was doing,
the P-3 pilot told the ATC to "mind you own business."
We view Jang's clearly biased account of U.S. ELINT aircraft over
Pakistan with a high degree of skepticism. To begin with, this
article seems to have been aimed at castigating the Pakistani
government. The article went on to question the government's
involvement, or lack thereof, in the incident, arguing, "The
public has a right to ask why the government and institutions
responsible for our national defense have not taken notice of
these violations and if they have taken notice, what reply did
they get? The reply of the American pilot to out air traffic
controller is a severe mockery against our independence,
security, and defense." Jang also incorrectly identified the P-
3's as "jet" aircraft, which they are not. Furthermore, given the
mission capabilities of the P-3 and the fact that the nearest
base of operations for Orion aircraft would be Qatar or Diego
Garcia, Pakistan is a long way to fly. Even flying out of Qatar
would most likely require at least two in-flight refuelings off
the coast of Pakistan. Finally, sending an unarmed, unescorted,
turbo-prop, ELINT aircraft over a minimum of 900 miles (round
trip to Kandahar) of questionably friendly to downright hostile
territory, would pose substantial diplomatic and military risks.
Despite all the reasons for not believing an obviously biased
publication, when the report is viewed in the context of the Bin
Laden network's recent operations in south and southeast Asia,
there may be something to Jang's report. The arrests in India
follow reports of increased Bin Laden activity in the Philippines
and Malaysia, including the support of fundamentalist Moslem
terrorist and separatist groups and the possible attempt to
dispatch terrorists to the United Kingdom. Thus, allegations of
P-3s over Pakistan, or more to the point, bound for Afghanistan,
may not be entirely fictional.
While the main function of the P-3 Orion is as a land-based
maritime patrol and Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) aircraft, its
EP-3 variant is an Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) aircraft, and
is used to collect various electronic signals emitted by devices
such as radar. However, the EP-3 can be configured to intercept
voice communications, including perhaps those originating from
Bin Laden's network. This would allow the U.S. to develop
intelligence on Bin Laden's network in general and possibly his
location.
If the report of Orions over Pakistan is minimally accurate, it
would indicate that the U.S. is still actively pursuing Bin
Laden, who is currently believed to be holed up in neighboring
Afghanistan. Of course this remains an open case, with or without
the Orions, but committing ELINT aircraft to the search raises it
to another level. The decision-makers in Langley and Fort Meade
must realize that intelligence on Bin Laden's location or
movements collected from an Orion mission will be obsolete a few
hours later. The first thing Bin Laden would do after being
overflown by an ELINT platform would be to move, thereby
rendering any intelligence collected useless in a tactical sense.
What then could be the U.S. reason for tipping its hand if it was
indeed looking for Bin Laden? It could be as simple as an effort
to gather any intelligence the U.S. can get on Bin Laden and his
network and operations. The U.S. could just be trying to flush
Bin Laden out, hoping he will get careless or just keeping him
off balance. It is also possible that the U.S. was attempting to
get a fix on Bin Laden's location with the intent to target him
for extraction or eradication.
With the end of Ramadan, Bin Laden has renewed his call for a
holy war against Americans, giving U.S. officials ample reason to
believe he may be ready to strike again. The arrest of Nasir in
India only adds weight to this belief. With moves underway by
both sides, the conflict between Bin Laden and the U.S. may be
nearing "end game."
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