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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Murphy who wrote (3142)	1/21/1999 7:19:00 AM
From: Kaena™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81091

Bill - excellent commentary. I agree with you on your last post - not worth responding to. You're right on target with your conclusions. Just a short matter of time before we get above $300 resistance on POG. Dollar is on the way down - Yen is on the way up along with T-Bond rates. This bodes extremely well for gold. Of course those lacking a minimal amount of sense to understand such charts would not be able to discern this fact from the past record of events. Gold definetly tracks long term interest rates and the recent trend is up. Anyone doubting golds new upward trend should examine a chart detailing the relationship between the Dollar and commidity prices. Better yet, take a look at the correlation between the Yen and commodities. If you look back over the past 5 years or so, you will understand. The decline in commodity prices has been very bulliush for stocks. Commodities were falling making room for lots of growth without inflation (except in paper assets). Greenspan had lots of room to cut rates. But as evidenced by AG's remarks over the summer about raising rates in fear of latent inflation and then subsequently lowering rates 3 times in short succession to avoid a banking liquidity crisis due to the fall out from hedge funds and such, we can see the Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place. They are being left with no choice other than to devalue the dollar. As you say Bill, the interest rate spread is not narrowing. Gold tracks long term rates. It's a fact for all to see - just look at the historical charts. Another red flag for the dollar was the behavior of the stock market over the summer. It was tanking as commodities were tanking - not what is supposed to happen. First time I believe ever for the market to correct as commodities trend down. The stock market is on its last legs. Commodities on the other hand are putting in their bottom. Gold will trend higher w/ commodities. As dollar falls- commodities rise. As Yen rises, commodities rise - check the charts - they don't lie. Developing countries are commodity based countries - they grow when commodities increase in value. A weaker dollar means more purchasing power for the developing countries which in turn demand more commodities. Lower dollar / increasing price of commodities = higher interest rates in US bond market. Recession means lower short term rates to stimulate the economy and thwart a recession or stock market collapse. The Asian Tigers are beginning to show that their economies are turning around! Has anyone been watching Thailand this year? After a dismal 1997, Thailand has seen over a 6 billion foreign net investment inflow. They bit the bullet and turning things around. Has anyone checked out Korea? - over $5 billion net inflow. Commodities are basing - the trend is up for yen, long term T-Bond rates and don't forget gold! 1999 will be our year. Only numb sculls will be shorting this market at this point in time. These numb sculls shorting gold at this late juncture have arrived at the party too late and will be left holding the bag. Good luck all. Keep up the excellent commentary Bill - so far your timing could not be better. I recall you started beating the drum mid August or so?