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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (791)	1/21/1999 12:29:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 3543

Bought some -g- short amtd and jpm. Where's Kzap, I want to ask him if the growth of the internet went down 40% in the last week or so -ggggggg- bb

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (791)	1/21/1999 12:34:00 PM
From: randy kay	Respond to of 3543

Arik, I thought I'd write you off the Systems/Strategies thread since I don't want to muddle up an intraday trading thread with blabber. Anyhow, thanks for clarifying your position. As for calling long term tops and bottoms using EW I think it is a worth while cause but as you know it is VERY open to interpretation. I have the Frost & Prechter book 'key to market behavior' and there is a chart on page 274 that Frost did outlining the 1987 crash that is bang on almost to the day. If you take that same chart and translate every move of it (only a slight crow bar needed to make it fit), you could say this latest correction which ended in Oct is identical to the 1987 correction and that we are now at the beginning of a new primary wave - Now, that might be incorrect but that's the exact problem, there's far too much room for error using EW unless maybe you've been using it for 20 years or something insane, otherwise you can just keep saying 'oops, I was wrong, now were getting another extension'. To compound things, history never repeats in 'exactly' the same way, Warren Buffet said something to the effect of 'If markets were based on history, the richest people around would be librarians' BTW, since I'm posting on this thread, I went short (on paper) AMZN at $180 and I think it will base/bounce near it's 50 day EMA which is about $100 so today might be the bottom Randy