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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: aknahow who wrote (8405)	1/21/1999 4:55:00 PM
From: Bluegreen	Respond to of 17367

I have never sweated out a possible approval as important as this one before so watch out! Even talking about or to myself is a distinct possibility. I have never had the bends but I think I might now know what it feels like.<g>

To: aknahow who wrote (8405)	1/21/1999 5:44:00 PM
From: William L. Molair II	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17367

I finally hooked up with Ellen today and spoke with her for about an hour. Discussed a wide range of topics and this note is just meant to "hit the highlights". If you have any questions, please call Ellen. Phase III trial - Ellen stated that the Phase III trial end point has always been total number of deaths. They had hoped to have the number met by December 31st with just 200 patients based upon the historical death rate in the U.S. So far, there have not been enough deaths. So the DSMB did not meet in early January. She did say that she expected the DSMB to meet in the first quarter and that the number of deaths should be reached by then. Current number of people in this trial is 339. I told Ellen that I did not think it was "ethical" to say the endpoint was December 31st for so long and then say that it was based upon total number of deaths. She indicated that she too had some problems with their position; but the DSMB would not let them talk about the death rate. I mentioned a press release and she said that they could not do that. She did say that she might update the FAQs on the website with this information. Blue Sky Question - I asked if Xoma would be cash flow positive if the drug was proven to be effective against mengiocoximia. She said that they had been discussing this internally and expected a flood of orders to stock hospitals / clinics the first year and then just "resupply" orders from that point. On the other hand, she also said that they had discussed the prophylatic (SP?) use of the drug to prevent mengiocoximia. Needless to say, much more money comes Xoma's way if the latter case occurs. Trama trial has 590 people enrolled and Xoma expects to review with the DSMB late 1Q / early 2nd quarter. Trial originally setup for 1500 people; but, Xoma hopes the DSMB might reduce this number (trial was originally setup very conservatively). Xoma currently has less than 1 year of cash remaining. Currently shopping a few drugs for partners and hoping that Genentech would extent their relationship with Xoma for the psoriasis drug. They will not start another trial with Neuprex until the results of the megiocoximia trial are known. Xoma has roughly 160 employees at the moment and they recently started an employee stock program that most employees are utilizing. I asked about their lack of presence at the H&Q conference and she said that most analyst do not follow the small cap biotech companies and that there was still some leftover hard feelings from 1991. In addition, Xoma has been going the "private placement" route for financing and the analysts firm make their money off of underwriting new stock. She did make some mention that Xoma has been seeking additional coverage and that some brokerage/newsletter might pickup Xoma coverage. Again, all of this info is my interpretation of the conversation and may be incorrect / incomplete. I enjoyed my conversation with Ellen and found her to be very frank and forthright (especially about the Phase III trial end criteria). Just wish Xoma had done the right thing to begin with (to prevent folks from filling this board with conspiracy theories!). CALL ELLEN FOR MORE INFO / CLARIFICATION!!!!!!