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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: blake_paterson who wrote (27831)	1/21/1999 9:13:00 PM
From: Jeffrey D	Respond to of 70976

Blake/all, the following is an article about a company that claims they can accurately predict the semi equip. cycles and, in fact, predicted this upturn last July. They claim a 90% accuracy rate in the last 12 years. Note the last paragraph of the article where the spokesman for this forecasting company states "we are seeing trends which point to a very strong year ahead." Jeff << 80 Percent Increase in Semiconductor Equipment Bookings Prove Accurate Forecasting Possible -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Story Filed: Thursday, January 21, 1999 01:25 PM EST CUPERTINO, CALIF. (Jan. 21) BUSINESS WIRE -Jan. 21, 1999--Semiconductor equipment bookings are up 80 percent and one semiconductor forecasting company is reminding the industry that accurate forecasting is a reality. Advanced Forecasting, Inc., (AFI) a semiconductor industry forecasting firm based in Cupertino, was the first to announce an end to the industry recession last July when it released its forecast at the SEMICON West Show. Now AFI points to newly released data from SEMI, an industry trade association, as confirmation of their forecast and proof that accurate forecasting is available. "This information serves to reconfirm our forecast," said Moshe Handelsman, Ph.D. AFI's president and founder. "Sales of semiconductor equipment lag behind the semiconductor sales performance by about one to two quarters. So we told our equipment clients last July that they should expect an increase in bookings in October and November." According to the SEMI Flash report data from a sample of U.S. equipment vendors, their semiconductor equipment bookings increased to $821 million from the September bottom of $481 million. The 80 percent increase reflects a recapturing of 34 percent of the $1.1 billion decline in bookings experienced by this sample during the period from November 1997 to September 1998. Frustrated by the extreme cycles experienced by the chip industry over the last decade, some industry executives and strategic planners have publicly declared that accurate semiconductor industry forecasts are just not possible. "We politely disagree with those who say accurate forecasting is not available," says Patrick Driscoll, AFI's vice president of Sales and Marketing. "We have accurately predicted the major turning points in the IC industry for the past 12 years with 90 percent accuracy. And we do not retroactively modify our forecasts." As for the near future, Driscoll believes it will be good. "We are seeing trends which point to a very strong year ahead"