To: TRIIBoy who wrote (1265 ) 1/21/1999 10:51:00 PM From: Sir Auric Goldfinger Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19428
Soros' bats in action: "Despite Passing of Crucial Measure, Brazil Sees More Currency Turmoil An INTERACTIVE JOURNAL News Roundup Brazil's currency, the real, dropped again Thursday, despite approval by Congress of a pivotal austerity measure. The vote had been expected to ease some of the concerns about the country's economy and the continued currency slide indicated that investors need yet more reassurance. The Bovespa index of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange also fell, losing 4.6%. Traders said shares slipped because investors were taking profits after the market's meteoric rise of 52% since last Thursday. The Brazilian currency, trading freely against the dollar since Friday, slipped to 1.6850 reals to the dollar from the previous day's close of 1.5900 reals. The Brazilian currency has now fallen 28% since it was removed from its "crawling peg" exchange rate regime Wednesday last week. Brazil's lower house of Congress late Wednesday in a 335-147 vote approved a pension bill that raises civil servant contributions to the bankrupt pension system, but more importantly, analysts say, proves the country is serious about cutting the huge budget deficits that sparked an exodus of investors and the devaluation of the currency. But casting a broad shadow over the renewed optimism was the real, which didn't appear poised for recovery any time soon amid mounting concerns that hefty capital outflows had dried up local banks' supply of dollars. The slide in the real surprised observers who had expected a calmer scenario Thursday after approval of the controversial measure, which when voted down in December touched off a wave of market tremors that led to the massive loss of dollar reserves that culminated in last week's currency devaluation. The Senate must now vote on the measure. Senate President Antonio Carlos Magalhaes said preparations for a vote will begin immediately. The controversial cuts affect about 300,000 retirees. The move will save the government an estimated $2.5 billion a year. Some U.S. economists say the mood in foreign-exchange markets may not turn around until the government delivers more evidence of its commitment to fiscal belt-tightening or until genuine improvement is seen in the country's economic indicators. Wednesday's vote "was an acid test which has now been met. It was a striking example of the politicians rallying around the flag and doing what is right," says Arturo Porzencanski, Latin America economist for ING Barings in New York. Still, the government "may need to retake the initiative," he said, urging additional cost-cutting proposals like a wider privatization program, public sector layoffs and spending postponements. A Congress full of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's opponents, as well as a Brazilian population already suffering from austerity fatigue, may well find demands for more sacrifices difficult to stomach. Before Wednesday's vote, Congressman and former Finance Minister Antonio Delfim Netto had said that although he didn't agree with the measure, he would vote for it "to stop the dollar going through the roof." But opposition party deputies took a different view. "We're taking money from the elderly just to show foreign investors we're working on the crisis," said Paulo Paim of the Worker's Party in Rio Grande do Sul. The global financial crisis engulfed Brazil in August, when investors withdrew funds for fear the government would not be able to cover a $65 billion budget deficit and might default on its loans. The government's recent problems in approving fiscal reforms helped rekindle investor fears. After spending billions of dollars in foreign reserves trying to prop up its currency, the real, Brazil began last week to take a series of steps to devalue it. The U.S. fears that if Brazil succumbs to an Asian-style currency crisis, it could undermine other countries in the region -- and that would likely hurt the U.S. economy, which depends on Latin America as a major market for exports. The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William McDonough, played down those fears Wednesday, saying that Brazil's economic crisis was not a threat to the U.S. financial system. He spoke after meeting in New York with Brazilian Finance Minister Pedro Malan. Meanwhile, financier George Soros said Thursday that Brazil's interest rates remain too high after the recent devaluation of the real. "Interest rates [in Brazil] are far too high, and unless confidence returns and those rates decline, Brazil will go into a very serious recession," Mr. Soros said. He called the International Monetary Fund's recommendation that Brazil raise rates after the real float "bad advice." Brazil needs high interest rates, but they needn't have been increased, Mr. Soros said.