***Long 3G rant*** When Vodafone and AirTouch say they'll use their clout to get the 3G impasse resolved, we need to think what weapons they have at hand. We sure don't want to be clouted if they have some good ones.
They have a big customer base, a big GSM base, a big cdmaOne base.
We also can see that the impasse is bad for them. Fewer customers, less technology development, less income and less profit. Vodafone is on hold until this is sorted out. An effect of the merger is to give them added leverage to sort things out, which is added value to Vodafone by way of the merger. They have got a can't lose position.
They can clout L M Ericsson by backing cdmaOne and starting greenfield installation now and expanding networks rapidly. They can start overlaying GSM with cdmaOne now. They can tell Ericy not to have their sales people call on Vodafone. Oh dear! Ericy would feel ill and their revenue and profits would look ugly in short order. They don't really need Ericy to proceed in any direction. So they have big leverage over Ericy.
They can clout Q! by offering competitor handsets, buying competitor's cdmaOne equipment and not giving Q! a look-in. They can't back Ericy VW40 because the silly chip rate just makes their system incompatible with installed networks. They want compatibility so their customers can roam anywhere on the same chip rate - Europe, Asia, USA, NZ. Fragmentation will mean they have to install multiple equipment types, devaluing the subscriber $ so they have less to spend on minutes, which is where Vodafone makes the money.
They want it VERY easy for subscribers to use minutes.
So they can only give Q! a small clip behind the ear. Even if they buy nothing from Q! we still make money from 3rd parties paying us royalties, buying ASICs, Eudora and WirelessKnowledge.
Since infrastructure is already in big trouble and Q! can sell all the handsets they can make, Vodafone can't really do too much damage to Q!
Therefore the clouting will be in Ericy direction. Expect an early chip rate and synchronization agreement with some bells and whistles from Ericy by way of figleaf with lovely WWeb standard unveiled in principle, say, next week, along with Q! hitting $80 a share.
Meanwhile, all [EU, China, NTT, Vodafone, Korea and companies there, Nokia, Lucent, Motorola etc etc] are trying to pressure Q! with a view to reducing royalty rates, which is in everyone's interests except Q! shareholders. That's me! So, my amygdala is twitching.
They are organizing trials of VW40. China is agreeing to this that and the other. Putting cdmaOne on hold. Singapore is putting cdmaOne on hold. Europe has got cdmaOne and cdma2000 on hold. All to lever Qualcomm into giving ground. NTT is backing VW40. SETI is backing VW40. They are wanting to make Q! think that they can rot in hell before they'll sell cdmaOne or cdma2000.
But look. NTT is seeing competitors gaining ground. The USA is seeing a tsunami of cdmaOne which hasn't even starting really rising yet. Canada, Australia, Brazil, Peru, Chile, Mexico, Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea, Israel, and other spots all have cdmaOne already well underway and gathering pace as the technology developments are all in favour of increasing sophistication in wireless, which only CDMA by Qualcomm can take advantage of.
GSM,TDMA, analog can't be upgraded to the new wireless world and everyone except Tero knows it.
So, while GSM has nowhere to go, though they will of course build a huge subscriber base over the next two or three years where they have a government mandated monopoly, elsewhere cdmaOne is chewing them up.
Watching a tiger hunting you is no fun at all. Now THAT is something to make your amygdala twitch.
So, let's all kick back, put our feet up and just wait and see how things develop. Cancel all 3G discussions for a year or two and each can go their own way and see how things are looking between GSM and cdmaOne then. NTT, North American GSM/TDMA/analog operators, China, GSM operators in Australia, Peru, Brazil etc will be sweating like pigs as cdmaOne by their competitors takes over [China will sweat as they build more and more silly legacy GSM networks - they don't want to spend billions on that and neither will foreign investors if WWeb is likely to break loose any time].
We Q! shareholders will see royalties rise in many markets. We will see various cave-ins as network operators are forced by competitors to act or die. Qualcomm, cdmaOne and cdma2000 will go ahead in leaps and bounds. Though not as leaping and bounding if EU and all agreed to WWeb with the right chip rate, synchronization and turbo coding. But still WAYYYYYY better than how Ericy will be leaping bounding backwards. Same for NTT. Same for Ozphone competitors. Same for USA GSM operators with no upgrade path.
Now, suppose the VW40 crowd decide to steal Q! technology. Ericy, Nokia, Motorola and others will have to sign agreements to guarantee no legal repercussions to their network customers to persuade them to buy. They should check how Texaco felt after they signed such an agreement. They felt VERY ill, and poor. What added insult to injury was they had to pay a huge settlement based on high crude oil prices which then crashed.
Suppose the courts in Europe and the USA decide that Qualcomm is correct that they own that property and Ericy acted in malevolent fashion by using Q! patented technology, wantonly and in direct contempt of USA law, defying Congress, the Senate and the American people. Not just in innocence with some prospect of a genuinely disputed technology ownership, but with vexatious litigation as their plan. USA courts, political and military systems are not disposed to casual abuse of American property and courts, especially by foreigners.
Especially when the USA President needs to keep political support at a high level.
The courts might direct that Vodafone, Ericy and other VW40 related property be confiscated, made a ward of the courts and damages allocated to Qualcomm in the biggest and most enormous settlement in human history.
So, the VW40 crowd had better be careful.
If they don't like the price Q! is asking, then they can go build their own inventions. I didn't spend big chunks of my youth listening to Fourier analysis, physics, and all that, followed by working for years in all sorts of jobs, saving money, learning, thinking, raising families and finally putting my life's investment on Qualcomm at a time when Ericy said it wouldn't work and Lusignan said it breached the laws of physics, and Q! and Irwin were accused of being scams, frauds etc, to hand cdmaOne, cdma2000 and WWeb over to a bunch of hagfish.
I want to be paid. I want to be paid BIG! I want Q! to be paid huge billions of dollars because the people there also put in the effort. I want Q! to be paid more than Intel, Compaq, Microsoft combined.
Big, huge, piles of dollars. No apologies needed from Ericy. Just their money. I offer no apologies to the whining Koreans, Motorola and others who think the royalties are too high. They didn't create the achievement. MY money and QUALCOMM's brains did!
Now, I hope the USA and the civilized world defends property rights.
I hope Vodafone does what they say they will and gives Ericy a big clout, using all their clout.
That's what I think Michael!
Mqurice.
PS: So, Q! will be $80 pretty soon. Namely 31 January. The New Paradigm will continue, despite Alan Green$pan worry. Q! is in the vanguard of The New Paradigm. Though the stock price isn't. But that's okay. People have realized Yahoo! Amazon and co are part of The New Paradigm, but not the only part and might not be any part in 10 years.
Dow will be 16,000 Feb 2002, despite Alan's worries.
|
