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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (12211)	1/22/1999 5:34:00 AM
From: Tony van Werkhooven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Steve- UBB results-Total earnings up 5.3%, 4th Q more than twice 3rd quarter, attributable to high interest rates. It could be that earnings would have declined had it not been for very high rates in the 4th Q. No indication of provision for non-performing loans. Dividends will be up by 24% over the prior year- we will take a cut after devaluation, since we took a 35% cut in the currency to-date. The comments about 1999 are interesting- wished additional commments had been provided. Indicated fee income was up, however in split between interest income and fee income is not included. Steve- high rates in 4th Q might have papered over an underlying deterioration- but not clear. I recall reading sometime ago that UBB had a relatively low level of commercial loans. Armin- what are your thoughts? Tony

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (12211)	1/22/1999 11:00:00 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 22640

It has taken me this long to respond because I could not find the numbers until now. based on the info provided, I feel comfortable that UBB is worth anywhere from $25-$45 based on multiples of earnings and book-value. This is just taking into account a bottom up analysis without country risk-but in my humble opinion if and this is a big if the asset liability stuff is good and the release hinted that the bank bewnefits from the devaluation, I believe the banks do well as exports increase. So I am very happy with these results and cannot understand why the market did not respond more favorably. no reason not to wait til some sanity is restored and keep clipping the coupons.