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To: Paul Engel who wrote (71838)	1/22/1999 6:19:00 AM
From: puborectalis	Respond to of 186894

FOCUS-Taiwan microchip giant upbeat about 1999 (Adds analysts' comments) By Alice Hung TAIPEI, Jan 22 (Reuters) - The head of Taiwan's microchip powerhouse painted an upbeat picture for the semiconductor industry on Friday, saying the industry will begin to enter a boom cycle after three sluggish years. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co chairman Morris Chang said he expected more than 10 percent growth in the semiconductor industry worldwide following what he described as a ''slaughter'' of microchip prices from 1996 to 1998. ''1999 is going to be different. 1999 is very encouraging,'' Chang told a news conference. ''That slaughter I think is over.'' The global semiconductor industry, which declined about 10 percent in 1998, has bottomed out and would enjoy healthy growth in 1999 and 2000, Chang said. He added 2001 was too far away to predict. Chang said he was equally optimistic about the prospects for Taiwan Semiconductor -- a global leader in made-to-order ''foundry'' chipmaking. ''I am just as optimistic about my company as what I say about the whole industry. I believe both revenue and earning will show growth from last year's levels,'' Chang said. Analysts concurred the semiconductor industry was bottoming out, but said a 10 percent growth may be too ambitious. ''The semiconductor industry is definitely recovering and the future prospect, especially in 2000, looks great,'' said Nomura Securities' electronics analyst Chris Hsieh. SBC Warburg Dillon Read Securities' semiconductor analyst Tony Tseng said he expected zero percent growth for 1999 before a more dramatic rebound in 2000. ''To use a fashionable term in the semiconductor industry, visibility is still not good,'' Tseng said. Preliminary results showed Taiwan Semiconductor's 1998 net profit stood at T$15.34 billion (US$477 million), a 14.6 percent decline compared to T$17.96 billion in 1997. Taiwan Semiconductor's full-year 1998 sales nonetheless rose 14.3 percent to T$50.233 billion, compared to T$43.936 billion in 1997. Chang said his firm's sales and profit in the first quarter will exceed those in the fourth quarter and capital spending would pick up rapidly later in 1999 and 2000 following the 1998 shrinkage. The firm's capital spending slowed to US$900 million in 1998 from US$1.1 billion in 1997 due to oversupply and excess capacity. At the moment, Taiwan Semiconductor still has excess capacity, Chang said. Chang said part of Taiwan Semiconductor's 10-year T$400 billion wafer project in southern Tainan science park would complete in 1999 and start operations in January 2000 -- months behind its original schedule due to a sagging industry. Chang said his recent sale of about 22 percent of his Taiwan Semiconductor equity stake was due to personal financial planning, rather than a lack of confidence. Chang sold 10 million of the firm's shares worth US$35.5 million through issuing American Depositary Receipts, raising suspicions over the company's future prospects. ''I was a little surprised the sales had created a stir. I am almost 68 years old. Many people decide to do some personal financial planning long before the age of 68,'' said the former Texas Instruments executive who came back to Taiwan and founded the microchip-making powerhouse in 1987. Taiwan Semiconductor's share price ended at T$83 on Friday, down T$3. (US$ equals T$32.2)