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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (12223)	1/22/1999 10:18:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

IMF's Ciampi: Brazil's Real Fluctuation Not Worrisome Dow Jones Newswires ROME -- IMF Interim Committee Chairman Carlo Azeglio Ciampi said Friday that Brazil's currency fluctuations should "not be given too much importance" because Brazil has a "solid economy" that should bounce back with international help. Asked about the risk of seeing the crisis spread to other Latin American countries, Ciampi, who also is Italy's Treasury and Budget minister, said: "There are always risks and dangers, but I don't see specific risks." The interim committee advises the International Monetary Fund's board of governors on international monetary supervision issues and global financial crises. Ciampi, also a former governor of the Bank of Italy, was speaking at the end of a weekly Italian government cabinet meeting. -Ralph Traviato; 39 06 678 2543; rtraviato@ap.org

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (12223)	1/22/1999 10:25:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Well, the IMF isn't worried...maybe that's cause to worry. As I posted in a private message yesterday, I think they'll get through the fiscal reforms by mid-march, and I suspect we'll see the next installment from the IMF mid to late February. I also believe the Federal government will win their legal appeals against the states in Federal courts. Assuming these conditions...then what? sf

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (12223)	1/22/1999 10:28:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Gov't denies rumors of Real Plan 2 São Paulo, 22 - President Fernando Henrique Cardoso denied Thursday rumors that the government is preparing a Real Plan 2 and considering to adopt a currency board system. "The real began floating a week ago and everybody predicted a significant oscillation at the beginning," the Presidential acting spokesperson, Georges Lamazire, said. And the oscillation was indeed considerable. The U.S. dollar soared 6.92% to R$1.70, compared to R$1.59 on the day before. The Brazilian currency, the real, has devalued as much as 28.75% against the dollar since the government decided to change its exchange policy, on January 13. Stocks were also strongly hit. The São Paulo Stock Exchange index (Ibovespa) ended down at 4.59%. The dark scenario was attributed to a number of reasons, including economist Celso Furtado's prediction that Brazil should be forced to halt the payments on its foreign debt and megainvestor George Soros' analysis criticizing IMF for recommending Brazil to maintain interest rates high. Antônio Ermírio de Moraes, owner of Votorantim group, asked the government yesterday to resume the exchange band system so as to prevent the real to continue sinking against the dollar. (O Estado de S. Paulo/ Jornal da Tarde/ Folha de S.Paulo/ Gazeta Mercantil/ Jornal do Brasil/ O Globo/ Correio Braziliense)

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (12223)	1/22/1999 10:32:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

What do you guys think? Obviously there's been discussion going on behind the scenes. Word from the big guns (Rubin, G7 etc) has been surprisingly quiet. What might happen over the weekend or Monday morning besides a lot of nasty press? I think the thought of reimplementing a trading band at these levels may be a consideration. Don't really understand currency board pros and cons. sf

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (12223)	1/22/1999 10:34:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Firjan estimates two-digit inflation rate São Paulo, 22 - Rio de Janeiro Federation of Industries (Firjan) estimates Brazil's inflation rate at 5% to 10% in 1999. According to Firjan, the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product should shrink 5%. According to the study, prepared by Firjan head, Eduardo Eugênio, industrial activity should be below that of 1998, but 74% of the entrepreneurs should maintain their investments. Gouvêa Vieira estimates that the real devaluation impact should be more significant on sectors depending on imported raw material. (Jornal do Brasil)

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (12223)	1/22/1999 10:38:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Retail stores 'dollarize' prices São Paulo, 22 - The U.S. dollar is dominating the scenario in Brazil's retail sector. Several computer and peripherals stores have "dollarized" their prices, which oscillate according to the U.S. currency. The simplest models haven risen R$300 in a single week. CD's and books are also 30% more expensive in São Paulo. Bizarre Records, for instance, has hanged on its front window a sign informing: "Our prices are fixed according to the U.S. dollar." (O Estado de S. Paulo/ Jornal da Tarde/ Jornal do Brasil)

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (12223)	1/22/1999 10:40:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Forex posts a US$313.8m deficit on Thursday São Paulo, 22 - The Brazilian foreign exchange market posted a US$313.802m deficit (commercial plus floating dollar segments) last Thursday. Financial inflow in the commercial dollar segment reached US$396.509m, below outflow which stood at US$863.590m. In the trade account, exports reached US$240.383m, against imports of US$87.105m. With the figures, the segment has accumulated a net deficit in the month of US$5.253bn. Yesterday, the floating dollar posted a deficit of US$97m. (By Lucinda Pinto)

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (12223)	1/22/1999 10:41:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Domestic equity markets apprehensive as real weakens After opening higher, domestic equity markets reverted their trend and are now in negative territory. Market participants claim nervousness should continue throughout the session this Friday as investors' sentiment is as low as the country's currency, the real, which fell 6.92% yesterday alone, and 40.36% since January 13 when Brazil's Central Bank tried an ill-fated controlled devaluation. "The real is the biggest concern now," a trader was quoted saying to Dow Jones this morning. "Investors are extra cautious and if the real carries on weakening, profit-taking (started Thursday) will continue." Yesterday, the real weakened as far as R$ 1.73 per dollar before ending at R$ 1.695. (By Paulo R. Monteiro Dias)