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To: Robert T. Quasius who wrote (1021)1/23/1999 3:26:00 PM
From: Ben Beale  Respond to of 1153
 
Robert,

<<I think this dog is ready to leave the kennel. All we need now is the inevitable return of higher crude oil and natural gas prices...>>

I thought you might be interested in the January 18, 1999
NOESIS SPECIAL REPORT on the Prices of Various World Crude Oils.

r/s
Ben
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Crude Oil
Worldwide crude oil production is holding at the maximum achievable level right now (i.e., OPEC and others have not achieved the necessary lower production level to pull down world inventories). As a result, the slow down of refining rates during February in the U.S. will ripple backwards through the upstream market and cause some producers to shut in wells or cut back production at the wellhead, at least temporarily, due to lack of storage space for produced - but not sold - crude oil.

Despite refiner efforts to maximize production over the past few weeks, inputs of crude oil to crude stills dropped slightly from 15.4 to 15.26 million bpd. The decrease may actually have been greater, since there is a discrepancy in the data.

Crude oil imports increased over the week, with the bulk of the new oil being delivered to Western refineries. Inventories increased overall by 2.6 million barrels from 321.8 to 324.4 million. Inventories actually decreased in PADDs I, II, and IV. Additional crude oil showed up in PADD III (+2.1 million), and PADD V (+6.1 million barrels).

Demand for products is expected to hit seasonal lows during February and March, which should continue to pressure refiners to slow down refining rates and reduce import levels. Inventory levels of all refined products in the U.S. are high. So even if refiners want to run crude stills at higher capacity, they cannot because they have no tank space for storage of products.