To: Danny Chan who wrote (1115 ) 1/22/1999 10:37:00 PM From: Mohan Marette Respond to of 2339
Another 'Strong Buy' from CS First Boston-A glowing tribute to i2. Danny: Here is another 'Strong Buy' (reiteration) From CS First Boston,which I picked up from the Yahoo thread.There should be a few more coming next week from Southwest Securities,Prudential and a few of others.This CS First Boston is the best report I have seen thus far today. ===================================CSFB - ITWO - Can Anything Stop This Freight Train? by: i2_Muse 1701 of 1702 Interesting and very bullish!CSFB - ITWO - Q4 Revenues up 70% - Can Anything Stop This Freight Train? - REITERATE STRONG BUY* Q4:98 revenue up 70% to $112.7M (54% expected) with license growth at 68% (47% expected), EPS in-line at $0.12 with all upside going to R&D and S&M* Despite the blowout, we are leaving CY99 estimates virtually unchanged at $0.47 and $503M (up 30% and 39%, respectively) and initiating a CY00 forecast of $0.65 and $680M (up 38% and 35%, respectively)* All major verticals contributing, with consumer goods (17%) and automotive (not yet broken out) showing greatest promise - customers' Y2K and economic concerns taking a back-seat to competitive necessity of undertaking implementations* Favorable competitive landscape and best recruiting environment in 2 years lifts some previous constraints on more rapid market share gains* 12-month $40 price target, based on 6x 99 revs (vs SAP at 6.4x and ASDV at 8x) reflects 45% appreciation from current levels. Reiterate STRONG BUYInvestment SummaryITWO pretty much blew out consensus expectations on the top-line, delivering 70% growth vs. our expectations of 54%. Borrowing a page from Microsoft's playbook, the company managed to project confidence while simultaneously keeping a lid on irrationally exuberant forecasts. Our CY99 and CY00 forecasts reflect only 39% and 35% revenue growth, respectively. All the major verticals are kicking in. Even high-tech customers considered by some to have been tapped out came back to the well. Compaq's 6th reorder brings them to $38M in total purchases. Automotive "appears on the cusp" of a major transition from home-grown planning software to packages. Interest in ITWO products ranges from low-level production scheduling through shipment planning, traditional supply chain planning, and product development planning. ITWO continues to gain share in consumer goods, particularly apparel, as Manugistics remains subject to financial uncertainty.e-Business Initiative Lands Compaq as Showcase Customer Compaq became the flagship early adopter of ITWO's new e-Business Process Optimization (e-BPO) application suite. e-BPO extends ITWO's product line beyond its traditional scope of supply chain planning. In CPQ's case, the company wants to be able to let customers configure their own orders on its web site. But as we described in our upgrade note last month, ITWO's software will supply the machinery to make this possible. The product configurator will be able to collaborate with the traditional supply chain planning software to determine what parts are available in inventory or from suppliers. It could also collaborate with the financial optimization application to determine the most profitable configuration based on the customer's choices. The key theme is that business optimization applications are moving well beyond supply planning and their addressable market continues to expand. Investment conclusion -This one is simple, in our humble opinion. This is the strongest story in the enterprise applications sector. ITWO's competitive position strengthens with each passing quarter. Its current valuation is below those of SAP and ASDV. Our 12-month $40 price target, based on 6x 99 revs (vs SAP at 6.4x and ASDV at 8x) reflects 45% appreciation from current levels. We reiterate our STRONG BUY messages.yahoo.com @m2.yahoo.com --------------------------------------------------------------------------------