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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Robinett who wrote (3116)	1/22/1999 11:10:00 AM
From: Keith Howells	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

Steve, I agree with you when you state that AOL's biggest problem long-term is bandwidth. I disagree with you when you say that they have 2-3 years to solve the problem. I think that @Home is a real threat - now. It is quite apparent that they have alot of support in the industry and that they have T as a big backer. Further, they have taken steps this week to gain the portal or front end and apparently ATT wants to 'sell' them their internet business now. Won't take long before @Home is a big player through cable or over the phone lines. They are preparing to go toe to toe with AOL in the very near future. That's my personal opinion. I think AOL needs to establish itself now in the cable market in order to combat this threat. I have used a cable modem, and personally there is no way a 56K connection will cut it. XDSL is part of the solution, but not the entire one. Cable rounds out the portfolio of offerings. As I see it, there is only one other cable company out there right now worth talking to and that's Roadrunner. As I see it, an alliance between AOL and Roadrunner, which brings along Time-Warner and all of their content, is a terrific match. I think if they wait though, a company like YHOO would have the opportunity to form an alliance with Roadrunner, then AOL could get left out in the cold. The alliances seem to be taking shape now. I think we're getting a view of who will survive in the future. AOL needs act quickly, or they could wind up playing second fiddle to a very powerful @Home company.

To: Steve Robinett who wrote (3116)	1/22/1999 2:50:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

Steve Robinett, Re your general comments on AOL versus ATHM and the broadband (BB) issues lumped in the stock price slump issues. I'll be brief, ( hopefully). My take on this is that broadband is not as pressing an issue on AOL as many perceive it to be. -40% of Internet use is to email: BB is not needed. -Broadband can be accessed though wireless/satellite. Between Motorola's Iridium satellite system and others, there is an excess of 600 satellites circling the globe right now looking for something to do. All you have to do is put a wireless cable on your PC and pronto you have BB. -EVERY Tom Dick and Harry is laying cable right now. There is still not enough of it which is why ATHM has only 300000 subscribers and will get another 1 mill through AT&T sale of their ISP. That still pales to the 70 mill+ AOL users around the world. -BB cable is expensive: ~$500/year. This is a barrier of entry for many. -On the other hand, if a subscriber were to get cable IT DOES NOT MEAN THEY WILL USE ATHM AS A PORTAL: I have ATHM/Cable. On my desktop I can access the web through MSN, AOL, NTSCP and ATHM. It took me 5 min to put each on the desktop. I can access the web through ANY of them INSTANTLY at ANY time AT MY WHIM and FANCY. So what I am saying is that over time, for rich? ( Keith Hankin are you there?, gg,), who can ?afford?cable, they will NOT be compelled to go to any portal ( AOL, ATHM, YHOO,LCOS etc. ) except for a specific reason. What is that going to be? I think it will be as to who provides the best OVERALL MIX of web offers and MOST of ALL, the BEST E-COMMERCE access. IMHO AOL is way ahead in all that as 30-70 mill eyeballs prove and it will prove difficult for other internets to surpass. I guess Bob Stansky feels that way too, gg: AOL 3rd largest holding of Magellan? Wow,you can't be serious: PE of 500, low cash flow, low eps overvaluation and all? AOL right after GE (1st) and MSFT ( 2nd). Magellan, 84 bill $ !! ; the largest US Fund; The real question IMO I think is: Is Stansky risking the hard earned pension money of America? Only time will tell, TA