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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (27845)	1/22/1999 3:48:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 70976

Richard - I believe that these strong cycles to the business are caused by fundamental factors such as the time lag between committing to a new fab and getting it up and running, the high costs involved, and the boom/bust nature of the semiconductor industry itself. One of the more intelligent observations, but obviously written by an engineer or perhaps an economist. <g> In addition it should be noted that some things in the system act as integrators or differetiators (e.g. whether a new fab is built is dependant not just on capacity utilization, but also on demand growth (differential) and cash on hand (integral)) and this almost inevitably produces cycles. Yup, I'm an engineer. Clark

To: Math Junkie who wrote (27845)	1/22/1999 5:02:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 70976

>I do think it's a mistake to use the results of any one company to try to forecast the direction of the entire industry.< rich, mu and korean mfrs are well over half the dram market. the ARE the industry. dram is very important. you are right about the equips. very cyclical. also, the time lag throws in some problems, too. i'm just saying that the cyclical nature of the equips doesn't happen in a vacuum. hye, so far so good. just keep those eyes out if orders start tumbling or flatten out...