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Technology Stocks : Documentum (DCTM) Software -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tokyo VD who wrote (390)	1/22/1999 6:02:00 PM
From: Wizard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 600

>>I find it also peculiar how you picked the biggest cut (bigger than management's guidance) in the numbers to highlight your perspective well management didn't get it right last quarter so i lost confidence in their official guidance. I don't think they end up doing $1.00 but how can anybody be confident in the estimates at this point. >>So, telling us to short the stock until "estimates start trending the opposite direction" is the kiss of death for a short seller. I am not saying to short the stock. I just don't think the stock is going up much over the near term. My point was that the stock probably just bounces around until they can provide evidence that $1.09 is the right number. >>what's the risk at $25 a share? 10-15% unless they really hit a wall. >>I don't want to bet against the industry leader when the smaller, less equipped Open Text has a $600 million market cap with half the revenues. good point. i agree with you that these two are mispriced relative to each other. maybe Open Text is a short? >>If management doesn't screw up the first quarter results, then the stock will trade off the '00 numbers. THAT IS $225mm in revenues and $1.50 EPS. This stock will be in the mid-$30s in six months. I agree with you if $1.50 is the '00 number come April results. I like the document management market. They hit a speed bump and we will have to see how they respond from here.

To: Tokyo VD who wrote (390)	3/4/1999 2:50:00 PM
From: Tokyo VD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 600

To all: Here is evidence of Wizard's ability to make a good call on the outcome at DCTM: To: Richard Esmond (340 ) From: Wizard Tuesday, Dec 15 1998 6:52PM ET Reply # of 429 Any DocSolutions users out there that are going to buy Documentum's new application?? This stock looks attractive as DCTM's pipeline is large and management knows the game of managing expectations. I am looking for a good Q4 with modest upside to next year's (1999's) current EPS estimate of $1.27. At 31x a beatable '99 number, the stock looks moderately undervalued.