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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scott Kessler who wrote (3936)	1/22/1999 5:38:00 PM
From: Richard Forsythe	Respond to of 10309

Ah, but had MANU just announced a stock split not 2 weeks earlier? To me, that is the peculiar thing. Who splits their stock if the quarter is not going well? Richard

To: Scott Kessler who wrote (3936)	1/22/1999 5:46:00 PM
From: NotNeiderhoffer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10309

Scott, Welcome to Wall Street. I am getting sick of it and you can have my job soon. The Lehman analyst is on the dow tape at 5:29 EST saying he was "misinterpreted" He goes on to say they should meet rather than beat their Jan quarter. He did slightly trim his FY 2000 number. How pissed is company management at this guy? NN

To: Scott Kessler who wrote (3936)	1/22/1999 6:23:00 PM
From: F. Foos	Respond to of 10309

Scott, There are few parallels between WIND and MANU. WIND's sales revenue has been on a steady growth path for several years. MANU's sales seem to be anything but steady growth. I suspect that MANU's sales tend to consist of large deals that occur sporadically. WIND earns revenue from developer licensing, run-time royalties and services. WIND's largest customers (HP & Nortel) each account for about 5% of revenues. The only commonality between the two situations is the lack of hard news to explain the price draw-down. Being the pattern seeking creatures that we are, our imaginations work overtime to create an explanation to fill the news void. All we know for sure is that there wasn't sufficient demand to soak up the supply of shares that suddenly came on the market, so the price drops until more buyers appear. A new supply/demand equilibrium point (support) was set this PM in the $31-33 range. I'm willing to venture that there has been no fundamental deterioration in WIND's prospects. Frank

To: Scott Kessler who wrote (3936)	1/22/1999 7:13:00 PM
From: Mark Brophy	Respond to of 10309

The parallel is eerie. This stuff is funny -- ya never know what the heck's going on. Last q, BMC Soft. beat ests. handedly & went down b/c of lower deferred revs. The stock went from $60 to $40. Wind River also has a "cookie jar" of deferred revenue that they dip into when their numbers fall short. Both times the stock fell by 1/3. The future price of Wind River will depend on how deeply they dip their hands into the "cookie jar". The SEC is cracking down on this practice, but it doesn't matter because investors obviously can tell when a company is cooking their books.