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Technology Stocks : Corel Corp. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: VerificateASAP who wrote (6079)1/22/1999 9:45:00 PM
From: VerificateASAP  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9798
 
Duncan Stewart is an analyst with Tera Capital was quoted as saying in the Ottawa Citizen that he expects Corel to report profits of only 35 cents a share for the year, which suggests that Corel stock is currently priced about right. Well in my books he is wrong.

If Kramer from Dominion Securities is using a very conservative price earnings ratio of 18X eanings on his report then take Stewarts earnings for the year of 35 cents projected and multiply 18X and you have a price of $6.30 US. $10CDN. Stewart is then lying because it is not priced right. It should be priced at 10 Canadian.

We all know that sales always go up on new product launches. Do you think Duncan is a fool. This stock is undervalued and he knows it. What, just because the launch of the products is in March we must all boycott the stock right now. Im a buyer on Monday. Im putting my order in right now with my broker. Here is my reasoning.

Steward expects 2 cents Q1
Kramer expects 18 cents Q2
I expect 16 cents Q3
I expect 14 cents Q4

Total average of analysts is 50 cents US profit per share.

Ok now multiply it by 18X earnings and you get 9.00 US. $13.50C Wow.

Do you see what is wrong. The share price doesnt even come close to those future projections. Stocks trade on performance of earnings and the future.

Well last quarter we made 10 cents a share.

We will look at this another way then.

Q4 1998 10 cents US earnings per share
Q1 1999 Duncan Stewart says 2 cents US earnings per share
Q2 1999 Kramer from Dominion Securities says 18 US cents per share
Q3 1999 I say 16 cents US earnings per share.

All together they add up to 46 cents and if you multiply by Kramers price multiple of 18X you get a price of $8.28US $12.44 CDN.

Wall Street always pays a premium for a conservative growth stock. So far im seeing the stock trade at half of the expected future price. That is a deal if you ask me. Bargain Basement. A real steal. I would be even more surprised if it even drops below 6 dollars Cdn. Then they are giving the stock away. All the better though I can buy at cheaper if that happens. I dont think it is going to happen though.

Any input feel free to join in.



To: VerificateASAP who wrote (6079)1/22/1999 11:48:00 PM
From: Thomas A Watson  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9798
 
Dear Coreler's, I've just started to track corel seriously as I read about their divesting of the hardware stuff to whomever. I never liked the idea of web terminals an saw them as a major rick to profit as write off unsold inventory. Other than that corel is a company with what I call linux coat tails. This is a place where you can learn about linux from article from outside the Linux community.

odin.appliedtheory.com

This article in particular may be of interest.

Investing in a Revolution
Submitted by: Thomas A. Watson
It's been called the biggest techie cult to ever hit a hard drive.
It's also been called the most serious threat to ever cross
Microsoft's path. Any way it's spun, the freely distributed,
Unix-clone operating system known as Linux has been grabbing
headlines and turning heads. Not only are more and more software
companies distributing compatible products, but a pair of
big-name venture capitalists have stuck their tentative toes into
the water

I now own no cosff, I'm long in applix and nine.

Tom Watson tosiwme