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Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony, -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (5693)	1/23/1999 5:20:00 PM
From: jjs64	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 122087

LONG POST! Christian; I think you may want to re-evaluate BVSN, and think about shorting one of its "competitors" CNKT instead. (I'm short CNKT) (BTW I totally agree with you on GMGC its pure crap!) Hopefully, I can convince you that BVSN is a good firm with good products and good management, and that CNKT is nothing more than a pump and dump. IMO BVSN is a wonderfully managed firm. Pehong Chen is a great manager and enjoys fierce loyalty among his troops. The One-To-One products are technically elegant, and extremely scalable (which creates happy customers). American Airlines is currently running on BVSN software, and Citibank is currently in pilot with the combined BVSN - SONE internet banking product (BTW I think EDFY is a good short, BVSN&SONE are killing them in internet banking software) I agree that as a stock BVSN is very expensive, but the only thing going against it is valuation. CFRA did try to question their accounting (concerning a barter transaction with IONA Technologies) but both companies have reiterated that it was above-board and the stock recovered from the CFRA allegations almost immediately. I have read the CFRA report and disagree with their conclusions. BVSN is an expensive software company, but a high-quality one, one that could easily be acquired. I cannot predict the market, and in a downturn BVSN, as a high beta stock would surely fall, but I am much more comfortable shorting a stock that is a true zero....such a stock IMO is CNKT. The following is a small write up on CNKT, I had prepared for a friend: Recently a lot of rumors have been swirling among day traders about a company called Connect (CNKT) and its possible relationship with Visa, as well as its relationship with IBM. These have been commonplace on Internet chat rooms, and have helped pump the stock above $4, where its needs to be to maintain its listing (among other requirements). The NASD had informed CNKT that they were in violation of the continued listing requirements. The venture capital investors behind CNKT have used these recent spikes to dump their holdings. CNKT has been a very weak company, with poor management, poor products, and a near-term history of hype and histrionics. Their "deal" that they trumpeted loudly a few weeks ago, with IBM, appears to be nothing more than a reseller agreement, whereby Connect resells some IBM software (such as MQSeries) that they use in their systems. Connect is acting more like an integrator than a software publisher. Connect came to a friend looking for money about 1 year ago. This individual visited the company, and refused to invest, thinking that this company was so poorly run it would probably go to zero. Actually, he was not far off, CNKT shares sunk to a (reverse split adjusted) low of .05 on 10/15/98. I have been chatting about the situation at Connect with people at other Internet commerce software companies, as the shares have exploded upwards on nothing but hype. Other companies have cherry picked some engineers out of Connect, and say that what is left is an empty shell. Connect is a firm with no valuable technology and remaining employees who are not good enough to get other jobs in what may be the worlds tightest job market! Connect recently raised $4 million, to meet the minimum asset listing requirements. Without this capital raise, the firm would have negligible assets. The financing was done at $2.60 while the stock was trading in the public markets at $4.3125. So, we have a company left for dead, with virtually no assets, trading at .05 before a 5 for 1 reverse split, that suddenly has its stock price soar, just as it is about to be delisted, by issuing fluff press releases. Then, once the stock is up, the company does a financing under the market (by a very big discount) to meet the asset requirements. All the while, touters are talking about "big deals" with IBM, that are nothing more than Connect signing up as a "Solution Provider", just as you or I could take a class and become a "Microsoft Certified Solution Provider." In my opinion this is very likely a case of massive stock promotion and fraud, and the shares should be sold short.