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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carolyn walder who wrote (22855)	1/23/1999 12:31:00 AM
From: Snowshoe	Respond to of 50167

Carolyn and Judy, I think WIND is still experiencing a slowdown from the hyper-growth of earlier years, and I2O has not ramped up fast enough to take up the slack. The selloff seems overdone, though. I'll post my thoughts in more detail later this week. -Greg P.S. A sudden williwaw just blasted in over the mountains and melted all the hoarfrost off the trees. Weather Service advises tying down children and small dogs to keep 'em from blowing away. Here's a picture from today's paper before the thaw hit... adn.com

To: carolyn walder who wrote (22855)	1/24/1999 5:20:00 PM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Carolyn, Here is an expansion of my thoughts on WIND... The statement from WIND management is just a legal hedging that doesn't really tell us much. Several years ago WIND had a period of hyper-growth and the stock got ahead of iself. The potentially lucrative Intel I2O revenues led some to over-estimate the ongoing growth rate. All the major server manufacturers announced I2O products in fall 1997, but after that there was no corroborating evidence to indicate that I2O was on track. I don't think the WIND thread did a very good job of facing up to this, but it was reflected in the flattening stock price. The market will now look more realistically at WIND. The myth that it is a perfect company that always exceeds estimates has been shattered. Even if last-minute revenue lets them make this quarter, future earnings estimates will be less likely to be taken for granted. In particular, the myth of continual 40% growth will be looked at more skeptically. WIND is not immune to business cycles, product cycles, and risk. The outlook painted by management in its conference calls and SEC documents has never been quite as rosy as some of the scenarios painted on the WIND thread. The analyst estimates are more on the order of 30% growth, and the stock seems to have been re-priced to reflect this. I'm frustrated that we can't get better insights into what is really happening. Hopefully this year more analysts will start to cover WIND and the embedded sector. Although I wish Allen Benn would be more open about the risks, he is certainly correct in saying that WIND has tremendous potential. There are a lot of projects out there on the drawing boards that use WIND products. As far as the share price goes, before WIND can break out I think it needs to set higher lows while the Nasdaq is under pressure. I regret that I did not heed the little voice in the back of mind mind that was telling me to hedge my shares when it got over 47. -Greg