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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (27862)	1/24/1999 12:19:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Threaders, does anyone recall what specific months AMAT had their 2x1 splits in '92, '93, '95 and '97. In 1992 in was in the Spring and '93,'95 and '96 in was in the Fall. I am trying to project when we can specifically get another split this year. Also, I noticed the when the actual split had occurred that the stock had dropped, starting to drop approximately a monthe earlier. I am trying to establish my selling strategies, if-then scenario's. Just my opinions. Thanks. Paul

To: Math Junkie who wrote (27862)	1/25/1999 9:17:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

>>I'm not saying that bookings are guaranteed to recover lost ground within any specified period of time. I don't think it's necessary to know how fast the recovery will be, only that we are in a recovery.<< I agree with you here. Your earlier post seemed to imply that the rate of recovery was important, and likely to be comparable to 1997. >><<As I've been saying for months, this downturn is really the extension of 1997, not the successor.>> That may be true for the DRAM industry, but when equipment bookings double over a fourteen month period, as they did from Sept. 96 to Nov. 97, it's hard to think of that as a mere blip.<< You're missing my point. The rapid recovery of bookings from 96-97 is part of the reason why the 1998 downturn was so severe, and is part of the reason why excess capacity is still overhanging the industry. (And, incidentally, a lot of those bookings were subsequently cancelled or pushed out, and never appeared as actual revenue.) >>The equipment companies have to take the orders when they can get them, and the investors have to take the profits when they can get them, without worrying about whether the industry is achieving some mythical nirvana model of sustained, steady growth.<< No argument there, especially since previous claims that the industry had reached nirvana have proven to be unfounded. My worry is that present equipment stock prices reflect the nirvana scenario, not the reality. Katherine