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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Duker who wrote (27864)	1/26/1999 12:57:00 PM
From: RockyC	Respond to of 70976

Duker, Pretty good analysis but I'd like to add a few comments. This is less of a rebound and more of a stabilizing of the business for the equipment group. What makes this time different is the following: 1. Equipment co's are much better run than in 85, AMAT included. 2. As long as we know we're at the bottom of the cycle, we can size the co's correctly and make money at the bottom. In years past, we lost our shirts until the revenue came back. 3. This is the bottom unless other "macro economic" issues arrise and the IC market falls further, which I'm not betting on. 4. In Q1/Q2 99 most equipment co's will record good (compared with Q3/Q498) bookings. Which should allow some of them to "surprise" Wall Street with reasonably good earnings. 5. No one knows what's happening for Q3/Q4 99 bookings so hopefully we're not driving off a cliff in July. I doubt that also. The stocks are up from the lows of Oct/Nov, I've taken some money off the table for now but I still think there may be a few more months of these prices. Everyone is waiting to see how the Q2 bookings shape up. Then we'll see the stocks move, but in what direction remains to be seen.