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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis V. who wrote (7365)	1/23/1999 10:46:00 AM
From: FMK	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

Someone recently expressed concern that six production lines would exceed market capacity. Here are some thoughts. The Klockner line has a maximum 4x5 inch footprint. For a 6 mm thickness, each cell would contain about 25 watt hours. A repackager could place four of them edge to edge to fit within an 8 x 10 computer case for a total of 100 watt hours. An 8 mm thickness could provide about 135 watt hours. Valence's improved versions may add 25% to these numbers for the same sizes and weights. If say 60% of the six-line (maximum) estimated 500 mln watt hour maximum capacity (300 mln wh/year) were dedicated for 100 wh batteries, there would be enough capacity for 3 million computers. At 6 wh for cellphone Batteries, the remaining 200 mln wh could supply 33 million cellphones. If the demand for cellphones and portable computers shrinks, a good portion of the capacity should be spoken for by PDA,s, Digital Cameras, Camcorders, the Army's OICW that replaces the M16's etc. Corriect me if I'm wrong, but my underlyning assumption is that the number of portable devices requiring batteries will continue to grow as Valence brings more capacity on line. If all six lines are in production early next year, it is more likely some of them would be running fewer than 3 shifts per day as it takes time to hire and train personnel. The battery sizes will likely vary significantly, but it would still seem the market should be large enough to consume output from six Valence production lines as they are brought up to speed! I remain convinced that no competitor is ahead of Valence either in battery performance or in manufacturing capability. Lev has apparently frustrated magazine editors and reporters by not taking time to with them, they apparently found some competitors, such as ULBI, that are willing to provide information for their stories. Otherwise, the press apparently has to wait for results, just like the shareholders!