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Non-Tech : Iomega Thread without Iomega -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Coley who wrote (6631)	1/23/1999 1:42:00 PM
From: David Colvin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10072

Michael, Thanks for the very well reasoned post, discussing the pros and the cons. I agree 100% with your rationale. Also, if you haven't seen them and for others who may be interested, here are some other interesting perspectives from the AOL Motley Fool Iomega board regarding the Jodie Glore "flat" Q1 1998 predictions: _____________________________________________________________________ Of course the market took Glore's statements seriously. Why wouldn't it? People rush for the exits when the CEO stands up there at a conference call and tell the world that they aren't going to make any money next quarter...regardless of how they did this quarter. Of course it was a "warning". It was also guidance. He told the investment community what he thinks is going to happen this next quarter and this next year. The only thing that is unusual to me about it is that it came from someone at Iomega. Why try to read a lot into his statement? He simply said that Iomega will either make very little or lose a little next quarter. Re: KE's "challenging" statement...to this day I think KE had no idea whatsoever what kind of firestorm that statement would create. Of course IOM isn't "strong and stable enough (like MSFT or INTC)" to play the expectation management game. INTC (to a large degree anyhow) and MSFT have growing earnings. They can almost always walk into their conference calls and announce that they beat estimates soundly and then tell the world how bad it is going to be next quarter and then beat earnings again next quarter. Iomega has no past history at all of beating earnings, let alone beating earnings along with record and growing earnings. Anyone who sits here and says that IOM has beat estimates regularly the past couple of years is fooling themselves. They do have a history however, of beating estimates that were reduced by the brokerages covering them just prior the announcement of earnings. That doesn't count in my book. ______________________________________________________________________ So, the Market may have taken Glore's cautionary remarks on 1Q99 seriously ....? It is a "warning" now according to MarketWatch? It does remind me of KE's "Challenging" statement ..... IOM simply doesn't seem to be strong and stable enough (like MSFT or INTC) to play that EPS expectation management game with cautionary statements from CEOs .... IOM the stock seems to be too sensitive ..." Way too sensitive on the way to 10. After a period of losses and negative cash flow, the last thing anybody wants to hear about immediately after announcing a quarterly profit is the word "Flat". Whatever the context, that was the term. Even the possibility raises the suspicions of all whom have waited for the company to return. He warned, many reacted quickly. Personally I was delighted by the earnings and margins, but terrified at the top line reported. However, with the OEM sales taking such a large portion in 1998, 1999 to 2000 is a much easier double in revenues given the current unit growth. i.e. $2.7 billion this year is easily attainable, $6 billion or more in 2000. I see the Jaz as becoming less and less significant in terms of future sales. Tail end should start appearing in late 1999. Clik! will be interesting. My hopes are for a rapid deployment of the 250 Zip in both internal and USB forms. That's where the money is this year and next. ______________________________________________________________________ In every place in the world we see the same scenarios just different players. Iomega is the black duck in a pond of white ducks. no matter how hard we try to blend in we just keep running into obstacles for the moment. than one day the little black duck passes the other ducks because he's actually superior, because he always had to try harder. Iomega the little black duck did something the other day, surpassed others expectations. Wall street does not like that because you're not one of the little white ducks. BUT like Gordon Gecko said in wall street for lack of a better word greed is good and yes all those clickies on wall street might not like what iomega did but sure do want a piece of the action going forward, because Mr. Glore through a small negative statement actually said a positive. He brought to light that Iomega will continue to be successful, but because of a few given specifics the 1st quarter might lag, but that shouldn't deter the forward looking game plan. All I get out of this is POSITIVE: stock is a buy iomega the happy little glorious black duck----- quack! quack! ______________________________________________________________________ Dave

To: Michael Coley who wrote (6631)	1/23/1999 1:54:00 PM
From: BeachBum	Respond to of 10072

Michael... Great post as always. One thing dawned on me as I read your post about the Zip250 demand . If you look at IOM's products they have a drive in each category , so any company thinking about entering the market would have competition, so even if they have a product that doesn't sell that well I can see the need to stay in that niche. If IOM can't make money in one segment other companies probably realize they probably can't either. I like this line of products. Clik! 40mb Zip 100mb Zip 250mb Jaz 1gb (discs ?) Jaz 2gb Even if they quit making Jaz 1gb drives I think they'll keep making the discs, therefore still competing in that niche. BB ^-^-