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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rocon who wrote (18071)	1/23/1999 1:24:00 PM
From: Zebra 365	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

First Call has 3 brokers. Range is -$0.08 to $0.00 Mean is -$0.04 Median is -$0.03 Duuh, when we reverse engineer those numbers: Broker A guesses -$0.08 Broker B guesses -$0.03 Broker C guesses -$0.00 First Call in general is a little more reliable than Zacks but not with this company. For example: VVUS could undo $10 million of the previous 16 million charge against COGS on alprostadil stores (raw product reserves) and show a $0.30 profit for the quarter. Who knows what they may do with the balance sheet. Last three quarters saw a runup to earning report then a reversal of the trend. Well, how about a rundown to earnings report, then a reversal of the trend, this time? Zebra Lots of unknowns here

To: Rocon who wrote (18071)	1/23/1999 5:16:00 PM
From: VLAD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Ron, It's not just about beating concensus estimates. I feel that the most important factor will be Wilson's discussion of the partnership negotiations and his forward looking statement. To my knowledge we will not have a partner but Vivus does have offers on the table that they could have already signed. To accept these offers would be welcome news to the short term speculators. To wait a little longer with a goal of wrapping up a deal that will prove healthier for the long term viability of Vivus will prove to be a wiser choice. It is my understanding that deals already offered have included large upfront milestone payments but Vivus is more concerned with guarantees that the partner will commit the needed time and marketing money/resourses that will assure the long term viability of the company. Wilson needs to do a stellar job explaining this to the investment community. During the last conference call he said very little concerning the domestic partner negotiations. As I recall the only thing he said was that he said back then was that he had no new news to report but that he was very pleased with the progress of the negotiations. His last remark on the December 17th news release stated only that vivus was making "significant progress". He needs to give the "investors" the needed information to convince them that at $3.00/share, Vivus is a good investment because Vivus is concerned more about the long term success of the company (after all this is what an "investor" is most concerned about) than the short term gratification in stock price that a hastily negotiated deal may bring. We need to see Vivus stock price go up and stay up and go up some more. Screw the rapid pops which resulted in gradual bleed downs after the traders and speculators jumped ship and the shorts piled on at the end of momentum. Both rapid and extreme pops in 1998 were simply the results of analyst upgrades and not on solid earnings fundamentals and a proven turn around in product sales. We need the price to appreciate based on the removal of uncertainties and confidence that Vivus will be able to be a profitable small biotech company based on growth of international sales and a favorable domestic partnering arangement. I believe that most here who were buying Vivus stock from the mid 20's at the end of 1997 and on down have believed all along (and still do) that all these things will come to pass. However it is indeed frustrating (as Alien pointed out earlier) to see Vivus stock "stuck" in this basing pattern while most other stocks have experienced a 100% or greater appreciation on no significant news since last October's lows. As I pointed out before, I strongly believe that the reason for this lack of appreciation simply rests on the manipulative tactics of the millions of dollars that can be quickly lost on the short side if the stock is allowed to build positive momentum. If the investment community likes what it hears on January 28th, we can easily see a 100%+ gap up at the open on January 29th followed by day trader momentum buying and panic short covering along with just out right accumulation by those who have been watching from the sidelines and waiting to jump in once the uncertainties of a turn. around are removed. The best we "believers" can do is to keep our patience and certainly it wouldn't be a bad idea to tell a few friends or relatives about the type of buying opportunity we believe Vivus stock demonstrates at the current levels. It certainly is best for them to buy Vivus before the cc as I believe most of us feel that the current price has every possible negative factor already factored into it.