To: funk who wrote (3507 ) 1/30/1999 5:26:00 AM From: wily Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7382
Recent trade: Yahoo buys GCTY for stock (no cash). Where did I read about this? Can't remember (how unusual). Anyway, next morning I'm watching EWBX because I know that it's an online community and maybe it will trade in sympathy with GCTY (the buyout premium was in excess of 50%). EWBX has been in a trading range for mucho weeks. Before the GCTY news it closed at $38 1/2, opened at $42. Savvy me, I waited and got it at 40 1/2, but only half of what I eventually wanted to get. Wasn't at all sure where this thing was going. Since it had been in a trading range for a while I should have felt somewhat insulated, but having been losing lately I actually felt quite vulnerable. The stock took a nice run up to 42 1/2, confirming my hunch that it was coming in to play. Then it took an irrational dive to $40, and I wondered what was going on but didn't quite panick, (the advantage of a good entry point). Sometime in the afternoon I checked the GCTY thread to see what might be there. Very quiet thread for a stock that just went through the roof. Someone left a few desultory comments about stocks that should respond favorably. BINGO! TGLO, XMCM, NTXY. So I put these in my minder and started monitoring their 5min charts. Around 2 in the afternoon they lit up, and I became hopeful. Sure enough my stock followed suit, but with not quite as much abandon. Broke out and ran to $46. Along the way I decided the thing would definitely gap and continue the run tomorrow, so I added the second half at 43 1/2. It closed near the high at $46. XMCM and TGLO both gained more on the day percentage-wise than EWBX. I was thinking that I should trade in my EWBX for TGLO which looked like the maddest of the bunch. Next day it was mixed indications pre-market on TGLO, XMCM and EWBX. Looked like EWBX was not going to gap. Started getting nervous. Put a pre-market ISLD sell in at $45 no takers. Opened down, moved down, I got out at 44 1/2. Few minutes later the stock lit up and was gone. High for the day around $55. How did I miss this? The buyout premium on GCTY was something better than 50%. I figured that with the morning gap on TGLO, most of this premium was already factored in, and although EWBX hadn't gained as much as TGLO, maybe the market wasn't going to give it as much of a premium. I figured these stocks had made their runs and it was time to bail. I've been used to stocks gapping in the morning if they are going to make a run during the day. I was thrown by the opening sell-off. Still have a thing or two to learn. wily who's been leaving a lot of money on the table lately.