Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: thomas hayden who wrote (35699)	1/23/1999 2:45:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 95453

Tom-my 2c is that there is a MAJOR risk now that we unravel all the way back to 6700 on the DJ. This would complete the correction that actually started last July and thereupon would set up a major rally to perhaps 13,000 from 7000 (to equal the % gain from the 87 low to the 90 top).---- In my view, Greenspan will not lower rates in the SHORT run this time around (too worried about the bubble he has obviously already created) and Wall street will get sucker punched.---As to possible catalysts, watch LA. Brazil could infect Argentina etc and also Venezuela and Mexico and if this came to pass, perhaps the market might be severely dissapointed in Venezuela for eg not being willing to support any Increase in oil cutbacks. As noted before, we would need NEW bad news to put the osx stocks to new lows. Everyone and their brother sees the known bad news and earnings shortfalls etc won't do it. But if Brazil became the catalyst for such NEW bad news via spillover, that might be a different story. As I see it, that is the main osx risk this time around.

To: thomas hayden who wrote (35699)	1/23/1999 3:06:00 PM
From: SargeK	Respond to of 95453

Your question can they go lower. The answer is obviously yes. To weather further down turns it helps to have holdings in great companys. ie. GIFI " Forbes Magazine recently recognized Gulf Island Fabrication as one of the 200 Best Small Companies in America. In the November 2 issue of Forbes Magazine, Gulf Island Fabrication was ranked #35 overall in the annual listing of the Best Small Companies in America. There were individual rankings for categories within the overall ranking. Out of the 200 companies ranked our individual rankings were as follows: sales 78, profits 74, market value 111, and 5-year average return on equity 125. According to the article, the ranking is based on a tough-screening process that includes a company's growth in sales and earnings per share as well as return on equity. Earnings estimates for each company for the next two fiscal years were looked at as were each company's financial documents and literature in search of relevant facts that might affect future value. To be eligible for the listing, companies needed sales of at least $5 million but not more than $350 million - and to have been public since November 1997." I have posted the above article to demonstrate that GIFI is a progressive company and to point out that current depressed crude prices is the only identifiable factor temporarily interrupting company progress and future growth. Timely acquisitions, no debt and sound management will inevitably reward those with patience and an eye toward the future of higher crude prices. To learn about the company: gulfisland.com K

To: thomas hayden who wrote (35699)	1/23/1999 3:06:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 95453

Tom: What OS stocks would do if the Dow goes to 7500 again depends upon the reasons for the decline. If the Dow tanks because say China devalues -- raising fears of a severe global economic downturn -- the OS stocks undoubtedly would go down with the market -- though probably much less than most other groups. By contrast, if our market tanks because the dollar takes a big hit -- this might actually be a plus for OS. A weaker dollar will add to the already enormous pressure on oil producers to cut production and hike prices. Another possible scenario is that a sharp rise in OS helps precipitate a drop in the overall market as the prospect of higher oil prices presents a major challenge to the "Goldilocks" economy

To: thomas hayden who wrote (35699)	1/23/1999 3:20:00 PM
From: Jamey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Thomas, you seem concerned that we are not seeing the bottoms of the stock price in the OS sector and since I was talking about Pride Petroleum, (PDE) yesterday I would recommend buying in at these levels and find a company that is as cheap or cheaper than its book value. For example, PDE has a book value of over $13.00 and it is selling for $7 1/8. IMO, (yes, I own the stock) you cannot go wrong on this valuation. Their EPS for 1998 was $1.32 and P/E of 4.78. I have been unable to find a better company in this price range in the sector. They have got FGI beat on fundamentals. Go to Quicken.com and do a comparison on PDE and FGI or any number of OS and you will see what I mean. Santiago