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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony van Werkhooven who wrote (12305)	1/23/1999 7:51:00 PM
From: lizard lick	Respond to of 22640

Still reading, its a bloody 100 pages long,,, i just skipped to page 67 that addresses TSU,,target price for 1999 on TSU is 39 and according to gsco this already assumes moderate seqential devaluations,,gsco-goldman sachs was calling for 64% some upside in TSU when its share price was at 24,, im trying to figure out how much this would have changed from last weeks developments, Gsco report is based on a economic downturn of -2.5 approx for 99,, ive heard some new estimates for brazil this past week to be in the -4 range from other sources,,? It, TSU, looks well positioned geographically to perform in 99 even in recessionary environment. income percapita is the highest in this area, alot of yuppies i guess shacked up in this area:), and waiting list is in the 70,000 range per report to get service,,Motorola coming in the area at some point.... Still reading. thanks for the report ,, it is very helpful

To: Tony van Werkhooven who wrote (12305)	1/26/1999 9:24:00 AM
From: Worswick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Tony briefly in regards to an Asian example vs. what is happening to the south of us.... I sincerely regretted once using the term "competitive devaluation" in regards to Brazil. I asked my self, "Why in hell did I use that term?" However, if you now look (two days after the post thereabouts) my ideas that I worried about unfortunately were prescient. Japan is competitively devaluing. China will follow as sure as night follows day. In the new world ehre anyone who wants tos ell anything will have to devalue. THIS IS HUGELY, GIGANTICALLY DEFLATIONARY. Why? We are now in an economic ping pong tournament. Asia/South America/Asia. Because you can print money but you can't force people to buy things they might not need and might get cheaper in a few months. It is self reinforcing ....this waiting for cheaper prices globally. Gas around here is $.93 a gallon with a $.21 cent state tax included and what is the Federal tax. What a windfall. I worry, however, the will the other end of the snake will come around to bite us here. Will the buyer of last restort run out of money??? Don't laugh. That is the big question. It seems the monetary authrities are levering the stock markets ofthe world ever upwards so the west wil have plenty of money to spend. I keep using the word amazing. It is the only word that fits. My best to you, Clark