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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob S. who wrote (36243)	1/24/1999 2:10:00 AM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Rob -- Thank you for your reply. I am worried about China because it was pretty much understood that when Asia was in meltdown, everybody looked to China to show some backbone -- which they did. The problem for China is that they need a high growth rate to absorb the millions of people being thrown out of work as they close down the state enterprises. This must be done because the Chinese banks are being bled white by losses in the state sector. Without export growth there are millions of unhappy campers. They don't talk about it much in the press but there have been serious problems. Major riots. As for Japan -- they are in really deep kim chee. They have resisted reflating their economy in a meaningful way and have been driven into the ground by bad loans in the private sector, soaring government debt (with $500 billion in US dollars being floated in the next few months), and another trillion in unfunded pension liabilities with an aging society, an appreciating yen and an economy that never grew beyond its dependence on exports. If China devalues the only solution for Japan is to print yen like there is no tomorrow, borrow and spend by government and drive up their interest rates (which drives up the yen). A high yen is a problem -- for exports which will drop at least as fast as the domestic economy revs up do to the increased liquidity. Greenspans choices are dwindling. I truly believe he will ask his friends to quietly kill off the nets, with AMZN being a key target -- because there will be excess liquidity. The market will stumble as people wake up to the risks of global deflation on the one hand, recession on the other, and the the looming spector of a piercing of the stock bubble in a 'flight to quality' anti-risk environment. This is what happened last October. The Japanese economy is so important -- but in the U.S, we don't get it.