To: Olu Emuleomo who wrote (36324 ) 1/24/1999 7:42:00 PM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Respond to of 164684
The Internet Capitalist SG Cowen Internet Research 4 enough”, since extracting AOL subscribers from the service competitively is so difficult. AOL, then, should be able to leverage their subscriber base with providers of broadband services or content. And that is what we are likely to see sooner rather than later. And though the spin is that AOL will be left out of the broadband revolution, we tend to the complete opposite view, that AOL themselves will be the architects of the medium, owing to their consumer relationships, their online brand, and the vast array of content and technologies that they could port to this market once it develops. For our part, we never rest any investment thesis on the assumption that consumers are willing (or able) to change their behavior rapidly. ATM machines, PC banking, catalog retailing and a host of other stock market examples resonate as proof of this truism. And despite the fact that we think the @Home service is fantastic and certainly much better (all other things being equal) than 56K Internet service, consumers will continue to seek the “safe” choice, which happens to be AOL. The dynamics of consumer choice and preference are just that simple. As well, we would encourage investors to remember that the relationship AOL subscribers have with AOL is very strong and is as much a function of performance as it is price, value, community membership, and just plain fun. AT&T's Involvement Could Alter Some Of These Choice Dynamics In Time… After the February 17th vote on the AT&T/TCI merger, AT&T will be @Home's biggest shareholder. There can be little doubt that AT&T is strongly behind the ATHM/XCIT transaction, having watched AOL undermine their once-hopeful efforts on the ISP font (with WorldNet) over the last two years. With 1.4mm WorldNet dial-up subscribers, it is likely that @Home eventually “takes over” AT&T's WorldNet efforts, though it should be noted that none of management's assumptions take any AT&T synergies into account. The prospect, however, of one-stop shopping (and one-stop bill presentment) should resonate with consumers; having their local, long distance, cable, and Internet services offered, managed, and billed via one interface could be just the catalyst that AT&T has lacked in their past efforts and could be just what @Home and Excite need to “dislodge” consumers from the tango they find themselves in with AOL. We would note, however, that these offerings are some ways off and in the meantime AOL can be expected to keep chugging along. This is a smart transaction from many perspectives, but it's not one that changes the landscape today tomorrow or even next week. We want to be as sober as possible about the merits and risks of the merger without getting too carried away with windmill tilting. Which brings us to out title; the business of acquiring subscribers/consumers/eyeballs on the Internet continues apace…in a narrowband world. The (narrow)band plays on, most certainly, and shouldn't be forgotten amid the optimism and expectation for fat pipes. A Note On Mergers… We're happily optimists, but we can't help recalling that old saw that the majority of mergers don't work out, often for reasons as complex as the companies themselves. We certainly don't hope this turns out to be the case with @Home and Excite, but we'll be watching closely as two next door neighbors break that long held rule to “love your neighbor, yet pull not down your hedge”. Getting Out At The Top Of His Game… If you were like us, you probably didn't give the proper appreciation to Michael Jordan's retirement from basketball last week or the symbolism associated with his (now) last shot to win the NBA championship in the sixth game of the series last year. Perusing the sports