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To: Olu Emuleomo who wrote (36324)1/24/1999 11:47:00 AM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 

That's how you play the momentum game! You *must* plan to leave some money
on the table otherwise you will give everything back! :-(
I also bot some YHOO at 260 (got a bad fill. I put in my mkt order when I saw 255 on
my quote m/c) and sold at 272. YHOO went to 291 but who cares? I made 12 points!


OLU,

I got a bad fill too on my buy. It may have been the fast market. I only made nine points but hey it is far better than a loss.

Glenn



To: Olu Emuleomo who wrote (36324)1/24/1999 7:42:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Respond to of 164684
 
The Internet Capitalist
SG Cowen Internet Research
4
enough”, since extracting AOL subscribers
from the service competitively is so difficult.
AOL, then, should be able to leverage their
subscriber base with providers of broadband
services or content. And that is what we are
likely to see sooner rather than later. And
though the spin is that AOL will be left out of
the broadband revolution, we tend to the
complete opposite view, that AOL themselves
will be the architects of the medium, owing to
their consumer relationships, their online
brand, and the vast array of content and
technologies that they could port to this
market once it develops.
For our part, we never rest any investment
thesis on the assumption that consumers are
willing (or able) to change their behavior
rapidly. ATM machines, PC banking, catalog
retailing and a host of other stock market
examples resonate as proof of this truism. And
despite the fact that we think the @Home
service is fantastic and certainly much better
(all other things being equal) than 56K
Internet service, consumers will continue to
seek the “safe” choice, which happens to be
AOL. The dynamics of consumer choice and
preference are just that simple. As well, we
would encourage investors to remember that
the relationship AOL subscribers have with
AOL is very strong and is as much a function
of performance as it is price, value, community
membership, and just plain fun.
AT&T's Involvement Could Alter Some Of These
Choice Dynamics In Time…
After the February 17th vote on the
AT&T/TCI merger, AT&T will be @Home's
biggest shareholder. There can be little doubt
that AT&T is strongly behind the ATHM/XCIT
transaction, having watched AOL undermine
their once-hopeful efforts on the ISP font (with
WorldNet) over the last two years. With
1.4mm WorldNet dial-up subscribers, it is
likely that @Home eventually “takes over”
AT&T's WorldNet efforts, though it should be
noted that none of management's assumptions
take any AT&T synergies into account. The
prospect, however, of one-stop shopping (and
one-stop bill presentment) should resonate
with consumers; having their local, long
distance, cable, and Internet services offered,
managed, and billed via one interface could be
just the catalyst that AT&T has lacked in their
past efforts and could be just what @Home and
Excite need to “dislodge” consumers from the
tango they find themselves in with AOL. We
would note, however, that these offerings are
some ways off and in the meantime AOL can
be expected to keep chugging along.
This is a smart transaction from many
perspectives, but it's not one that changes the
landscape today tomorrow or even next week.
We want to be as sober as possible about the
merits and risks of the merger without getting
too carried away with windmill tilting. Which
brings us to out title; the business of acquiring
subscribers/consumers/eyeballs on the Internet
continues apace…in a narrowband world. The
(narrow)band plays on, most certainly, and
shouldn't be forgotten amid the optimism and
expectation for fat pipes.
A Note On Mergers…
We're happily optimists, but we can't help
recalling that old saw that the majority of
mergers don't work out, often for reasons as
complex as the companies themselves. We
certainly don't hope this turns out to be the
case with @Home and Excite, but we'll be
watching closely as two next door neighbors
break that long held rule to “love your
neighbor, yet pull not down your hedge”.
Getting Out At The Top Of His Game…
If you were like us, you probably didn't give
the proper appreciation to Michael Jordan's
retirement from basketball last week or the
symbolism associated with his (now) last shot
to win the NBA championship in the sixth
game of the series last year. Perusing the sports